Closing spread
DEN -5.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.2est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.065EPA / play+0.035
- 49.4%Success rate44.0%
- +0.067EPA / dropback+0.097
- +0.062EPA / rush-0.070
- 8.4%Explosive rate7.4%
- 37.9%Third-down rate43.0%
- 58.0%Red-zone TD rate47.4%
- 1.76Points / drive1.60
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.007EPA / play allowed+0.049
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.4 points. SEA are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 17/27 | 194 | 0 | 1 |
| Steve Beuerlein | 2/2 | 15 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 23 | 136 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Olandis Gary | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Steve Beuerlein | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Smith | 5 | 10 | 58 | 1 |
| Clinton Portis | 2 | 3 | 52 | 0 |
| Ed McCaffrey | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Ashley Lelie | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Reuben Droughns | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Patrick Hape | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Jeb Putzier | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 22/36 | 180 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 11 | 18 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Koren Robinson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Itula Mili | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Bobby Engram | 3 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 6 | 8 | 23 | 0 |
| Koren Robinson | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| James Williams | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Jerramy Stevens | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
1.73%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
47.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.44
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.21