2002 · Week 11

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Brian Griese

31·9

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

Seahawks Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 53°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

DEN -5.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+2.2est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.065EPA / play+0.035
  • 49.4%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.067EPA / dropback+0.097
  • +0.062EPA / rush-0.070
  • 8.4%Explosive rate7.4%
  • 37.9%Third-down rate43.0%
  • 58.0%Red-zone TD rate47.4%
  • 1.76Points / drive1.60
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.6%
  • +0.007EPA / play allowed+0.049

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. SEA are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6SEA @ DEN14–17DEN
2024 · W1DEN @ SEA20–26SEA
2022 · W1DEN @ SEA16–17SEA
2018 · W1SEA @ DEN24–27DEN
2014 · W3DEN @ SEA20–26SEA
2013 · playoffsSEA @ DEN43–8SEA
2010 · W2SEA @ DEN14–31DEN
2006 · W13SEA @ DEN23–20SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–SEA
DENQ1 15:00841Missed field goal0–0
SEAQ1 10:4430Turnover0–0
DENQ1 9:48922Turnover0–0
SEAQ1 5:171133Punt0–0
DENQ2 13:27624Punt0–0
SEAQ2 10:32412Punt0–0
DENQ2 8:00760Field goal3–0
SEAQ2 5:02310Turnover3–0
DENQ2 3:5037Punt3–0
SEAQ2 2:4630Punt3–0
DENQ2 1:31847End of half3–0
SEAQ3 15:00422Field goal3–3
DENQ3 13:06461Touchdown10–3
SEAQ3 11:151154Field goal10–6
DENQ3 6:001487Touchdown17–6
SEAQ4 14:551158Field goal17–9
DENQ4 8:57745Touchdown24–9
SEAQ4 5:2030Punt24–9
DENQ4 3:5367Punt24–9
SEAQ4 1:1247Opp touchdown31–9
DENQ4 0:1400Opp touchdown31–9
SEAQ4 0:1418End of half31–9

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Griese17/2719401
Steve Beuerlein2/21520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clinton Portis231365.90
Mike Anderson4205.01
Olandis Gary11919.00
Brian Griese2168.00
Rod Smith2115.50
Steve Beuerlein200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rod Smith510581
Clinton Portis23520
Ed McCaffrey45360
Ashley Lelie23180
Reuben Droughns11170
Olandis Gary2290
Mike Anderson1160
Patrick Hape1111
Jeb Putzier0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck22/3618002

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaun Alexander11181.60
Matt Hasselbeck2136.50
Koren Robinson199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Itula Mili45410
Bobby Engram35400
Shaun Alexander68230
Koren Robinson25210
James Williams24200
Jerramy Stevens13180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

1.73%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.0%

Expected total

47.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.44
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+2.21