Closing spread
KC -3
Total
37
Model margin
-3.6est.
KC perspective
Push chance
6.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.014EPA / play-0.009
- 40.5%Success rate41.1%
- +0.108EPA / dropback+0.031
- -0.175EPA / rush-0.050
- 7.0%Explosive rate9.0%
- +3.00CPOE+3.07
- 42.7%Third-down rate41.1%
- 50.8%Red-zone TD rate57.2%
- 1.57Points / drive1.66
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 10–5 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. KC are 10-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 21/27 | 283 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 24 | 81 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Steve McNair | 7 | 12 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 15/27 | 178 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 23 | 120 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 6 | 5 | 0.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
6.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
39.5%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.76
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.15
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-3.59