Closing spread
PIT -7
Total
34
Model margin
+4.7est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.197EPA / play+0.004
- 38.3%Success rate43.1%
- -0.178EPA / dropback+0.069
- -0.231EPA / rush-0.085
- 6.4%Explosive rate9.2%
- +3.75CPOE+1.04
- 34.0%Third-down rate43.2%
- 50.2%Red-zone TD rate48.8%
- 1.01Points / drive1.68
- 4.2%Turnover rate3.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–14–1 since 1999
CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.1 points. PIT are 29-26-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CLE–PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 23 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 12:10 | 7 | 48 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 7:32 | 8 | 97 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| CLE | Q1 3:18 | 8 | 34 | Punt | 0–7 |
| PIT | Q1 0:03 | 14 | 78 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| CLE | Q2 9:15 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–10 |
| PIT | Q2 6:48 | 2 | 20 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| CLE | Q2 6:28 | 3 | 12 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| PIT | Q2 5:37 | 4 | 31 | Missed field goal | 0–10 |
| CLE | Q2 3:18 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–10 |
| PIT | Q2 2:17 | 3 | 19 | Punt | 0–10 |
| CLE | Q2 1:37 | 7 | 59 | Missed field goal | 0–10 |
| PIT | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 0–10 |
| CLE | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 0–10 |
| PIT | Q3 13:01 | 12 | 91 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| CLE | Q3 5:32 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–17 |
| PIT | Q3 3:52 | 4 | 74 | Touchdown | 0–24 |
| CLE | Q3 1:47 | 3 | 35 | Turnover | 0–24 |
| PIT | Q3 0:05 | 11 | 61 | Field goal | 0–27 |
| CLE | Q4 7:26 | 5 | 78 | Touchdown | 7–27 |
| PIT | Q4 5:20 | 6 | 37 | End of half | 7–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 21/37 | 276 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 11/21 | 225 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 32 | 223 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Najeh Davenport | 14 | 62 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Charlie Batch | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
4.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.5%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.90
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.77
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.68