Closing spread
PIT -7
Total
34
Model margin
+4.7est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.197EPA / play+0.004
- 38.3%Success rate43.1%
- -0.178EPA / dropback+0.069
- -0.231EPA / rush-0.085
- 6.4%Explosive rate9.2%
- +3.75CPOE+1.04
- 34.0%Third-down rate43.2%
- 50.2%Red-zone TD rate48.8%
- 1.01Points / drive1.68
- 4.2%Turnover rate3.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. PIT are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 21/37 | 276 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 11/21 | 225 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 32 | 223 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Najeh Davenport | 14 | 62 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Charlie Batch | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
4.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.5%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.90
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.77
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.68