Closing spread
SD -9
Total
41
Model margin
+2.3est.
SD perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Chargers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 33–23 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. SD are 25-26-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 37 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 11:43 | 5 | 37 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 8:40 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 7:07 | 4 | 44 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 4:50 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 3:02 | 6 | 54 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| DEN | Q1 0:05 | 4 | 59 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| LAC | Q2 12:49 | 5 | 53 | Touchdown | 3–21 |
| DEN | Q2 10:15 | 8 | 32 | Punt | 3–21 |
| LAC | Q2 6:42 | 13 | 85 | Touchdown | 3–28 |
| DEN | Q2 0:23 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 3–28 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–28 |
| DEN | Q3 14:01 | 7 | 66 | Touchdown | 10–28 |
| LAC | Q3 10:35 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 10–28 |
| DEN | Q3 10:27 | 3 | 27 | Touchdown | 17–28 |
| LAC | Q3 9:47 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 17–28 |
| DEN | Q3 6:10 | 11 | 55 | Field goal | 20–28 |
| LAC | Q3 1:02 | 6 | 64 | Field goal | 20–31 |
| DEN | Q4 12:52 | 6 | 26 | Turnover on downs | 20–31 |
| LAC | Q4 10:58 | 6 | 29 | Field goal | 20–34 |
| DEN | Q4 8:15 | 4 | 0 | Turnover on downs | 20–34 |
| LAC | Q4 6:51 | 5 | 20 | Touchdown | 20–41 |
| DEN | Q4 3:57 | 2 | -3 | Turnover | 20–47 |
| LAC | Q4 3:15 | 1 | 7 | Touchdown | 20–48 |
| DEN | Q4 3:10 | 5 | 26 | End of half | 20–48 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 17/30 | 188 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatum Bell | 17 | 116 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Mike Bell | 10 | 46 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
1.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.06
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.27
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.