Closing spread
SD -9
Total
41
Model margin
+2.3est.
SD perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Chargers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. SD are 25-25-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 17/30 | 188 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatum Bell | 17 | 116 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Mike Bell | 10 | 46 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
1.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.06
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.27
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.