Closing spread
SF -4
Total
44
Model margin
+0.1est.
SF perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.067EPA / play-0.091
- 40.0%Success rate39.6%
- -0.018EPA / dropback-0.094
- -0.146EPA / rush-0.088
- 8.1%Explosive rate9.6%
- -5.72CPOE-0.50
- 38.9%Third-down rate33.3%
- 36.6%Red-zone TD rate46.1%
- 1.28Points / drive1.43
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 13–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. SF are 8-11-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 22/34 | 293 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 21 | 77 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Vernand Morency | 7 | 69 | 9.9 | 0 |
| Noah Herron | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 2 | -6 | -3.0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 12/29 | 201 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 19 | 130 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Vernon Davis | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Maurice Hicks | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.3%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.46
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.10