Closing spread
IND -1
Total
44
Model margin
+2.6est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.153EPA / play+0.011
- 51.4%Success rate42.5%
- +0.294EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.043EPA / rush+0.053
- 8.8%Explosive rate10.6%
- +4.70CPOE+0.26
- 56.7%Third-down rate39.0%
- 70.9%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 2.54Points / drive1.59
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–23 since 1999
JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. JAX are 32-17-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 36 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 13:19 | 2 | 94 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| IND | Q1 12:19 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q1 10:59 | 4 | 0 | Turnover on downs | 0–7 |
| IND | Q1 9:28 | 6 | 20 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| JAX | Q1 6:05 | 4 | 26 | Missed field goal | 3–7 |
| IND | Q1 3:53 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 3–7 |
| JAX | Q1 1:35 | 5 | 11 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| IND | Q2 14:12 | 12 | 80 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| JAX | Q2 8:18 | 5 | 81 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| IND | Q2 5:45 | 5 | 46 | Turnover | 10–14 |
| JAX | Q2 2:49 | 5 | 73 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| IND | Q2 1:17 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 10–21 |
| JAX | Q2 0:25 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 10–30 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 10–31 |
| IND | Q3 14:48 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 10–31 |
| JAX | Q3 13:57 | 4 | 31 | Field goal | 10–34 |
| IND | Q3 11:07 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 10–34 |
| JAX | Q3 9:57 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 10–34 |
| IND | Q3 7:22 | 10 | 27 | Turnover on downs | 10–34 |
| JAX | Q3 5:16 | 7 | 28 | Field goal | 10–37 |
| IND | Q3 0:22 | 12 | 80 | Touchdown | 17–37 |
| JAX | Q4 11:13 | 11 | 59 | Touchdown | 17–44 |
| IND | Q4 3:59 | 9 | 49 | Turnover on downs | 17–44 |
| JAX | Q4 2:16 | 2 | 24 | End of half | 17–44 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 25/50 | 313 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 11 | 22 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 8 | 11 | 1.4 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 8/14 | 79 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 15 | 166 | 11.1 | 2 |
| Fred Taylor | 9 | 131 | 14.6 | 1 |
| Alvin Pearman | 13 | 71 | 5.5 | 1 |
| David Garrard | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.2%
Expected total
47.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.08
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.64