Closing spread
IND -1
Total
44
Model margin
+2.6est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.153EPA / play+0.011
- 51.4%Success rate42.5%
- +0.294EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.043EPA / rush+0.053
- 8.8%Explosive rate10.6%
- +4.70CPOE+0.26
- 56.7%Third-down rate39.0%
- 70.9%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 2.54Points / drive1.59
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. JAX are 31-17-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 25/50 | 313 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 11 | 22 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 8 | 11 | 1.4 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 8/14 | 79 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 15 | 166 | 11.1 | 2 |
| Fred Taylor | 9 | 131 | 14.6 | 1 |
| Alvin Pearman | 13 | 71 | 5.5 | 1 |
| David Garrard | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.2%
Expected total
47.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.08
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.64