Closing spread
DET -1
Total
40.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
DET perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Lions
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.151EPA / play-0.112
- 39.3%Success rate42.6%
- -0.174EPA / dropback-0.057
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.242
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.0%
- +1.13CPOE+0.25
- 33.2%Third-down rate33.0%
- 45.1%Red-zone TD rate53.4%
- 0.99Points / drive1.48
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. DET are 26-25-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–DET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 14 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| DET | Q1 8:01 | 6 | 22 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| MIN | Q1 5:20 | 6 | 45 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| DET | Q1 2:32 | 3 | 10 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| MIN | Q1 1:08 | 5 | 22 | Touchdown | 20–0 |
| DET | Q2 13:41 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 20–0 |
| MIN | Q2 11:56 | 7 | 52 | Opp touchdown | 20–7 |
| MIN | Q2 8:04 | 9 | 50 | Turnover | 20–7 |
| DET | Q2 3:31 | 8 | 35 | Field goal | 20–10 |
| MIN | Q2 1:30 | 2 | 22 | End of half | 20–10 |
| DET | Q3 15:00 | 2 | 1 | Turnover | 20–10 |
| MIN | Q3 14:05 | 3 | 6 | Field goal | 23–10 |
| DET | Q3 12:33 | 9 | 31 | Field goal | 23–13 |
| MIN | Q3 7:27 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 23–13 |
| DET | Q3 5:36 | 3 | 12 | Turnover | 23–13 |
| MIN | Q3 4:00 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 23–13 |
| DET | Q3 1:17 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 23–13 |
| MIN | Q3 1:01 | 5 | 26 | Touchdown | 30–13 |
| DET | Q4 13:46 | 7 | 66 | Touchdown | 30–20 |
| MIN | Q4 10:48 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 30–20 |
| DET | Q4 8:37 | 10 | 78 | Turnover on downs | 30–20 |
| MIN | Q4 3:39 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 30–20 |
| DET | Q4 1:50 | 6 | 24 | Turnover | 30–20 |
| MIN | Q4 1:01 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 30–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 14/22 | 159 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artose Pinner | 29 | 125 | 4.3 | 3 |
| Ciatrick Fason | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Bethel Johnson | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 28/41 | 294 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arlen Harris | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Jones | 9 | -3 | -0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
41.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.93
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.63