Closing spread
DET -1
Total
40.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
DET perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Lions
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.151EPA / play-0.112
- 39.3%Success rate42.6%
- -0.174EPA / dropback-0.057
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.242
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.0%
- +1.13CPOE+0.25
- 33.2%Third-down rate33.0%
- 45.1%Red-zone TD rate53.4%
- 0.99Points / drive1.48
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DET are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 14/22 | 159 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artose Pinner | 29 | 125 | 4.3 | 3 |
| Ciatrick Fason | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Bethel Johnson | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 28/41 | 294 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arlen Harris | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Jones | 9 | -3 | -0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
41.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.93
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.63