2006 · Week 14

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

27·13

Panthers

Carolina

QB Chris Weinke

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 47°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

NYG -3

Total

38.5

Model margin

+0.2est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.017EPA / play-0.071
  • 45.6%Success rate41.2%
  • -0.017EPA / dropback-0.043
  • -0.017EPA / rush-0.112
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -3.95CPOE-0.31
  • 38.8%Third-down rate31.1%
  • 62.8%Red-zone TD rate59.1%
  • 1.77Points / drive1.29
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46.4 points. CAR are 5-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W10NYG @ CAR17–20CAR
2022 · W2CAR @ NYG16–19NYG
2021 · W7CAR @ NYG3–25NYG
2018 · W5NYG @ CAR31–33CAR
2015 · W15CAR @ NYG38–35CAR
2013 · W3NYG @ CAR0–38CAR
2012 · W3NYG @ CAR36–7NYG
2010 · W1CAR @ NYG18–31NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–CAR
NYGQ1 15:00420Punt0–0
CARQ1 12:1238Punt0–0
NYGQ1 10:411340Field goal3–0
CARQ1 4:5637Punt3–0
NYGQ1 3:2033Punt3–0
CARQ1 2:2039Punt3–0
NYGQ1 0:44476Touchdown10–0
CARQ2 14:48478Touchdown10–7
NYGQ2 12:59417Punt10–7
CARQ2 11:08611Punt10–7
NYGQ2 7:5237Punt10–7
CARQ2 6:261166Field goal10–10
NYGQ2 3:02974Touchdown17–10
CARQ2 0:2700End of half17–10
CARQ3 15:0034Punt17–10
NYGQ3 14:01630Field goal20–10
CARQ3 10:4438Turnover20–10
NYGQ3 9:15514Touchdown27–10
CARQ3 6:59532Punt27–10
NYGQ3 5:1132Punt27–10
CARQ3 3:25333Turnover27–10
NYGQ3 1:4935Punt27–10
CARQ3 0:25719Turnover on downs27–10
NYGQ4 13:3739Punt27–10
CARQ4 12:01638Turnover27–10
NYGQ4 9:3039Punt27–10
CARQ4 7:391169Field goal27–13
NYGQ4 4:3234Punt27–13
CARQ4 3:301082Turnover on downs27–13
NYGQ4 0:5200End of half27–13

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning17/3317230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tiki Barber201125.60
Brandon Jacobs10161.60
Eli Manning571.40

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chris Weinke34/6142313

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeShaun Foster8232.90
Chris Weinke3165.30
DeAngelo Williams210.50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

7.33%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.7%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.26
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.52
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+0.22