2018 · Week 5

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

31·33

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

CAR -7

Total

43.5

Model margin

+2.7est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.016EPA / play+0.067
  • 39.9%Success rate48.0%
  • +0.054EPA / dropback+0.086
  • -0.054EPA / rush+0.033
  • 9.5%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +0.30CPOE+2.75
  • 36.5%Third-down rate42.1%
  • 51.8%Red-zone TD rate68.2%
  • 1.89Points / drive2.20
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46.4 points. CAR are 5-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W10NYG @ CAR17–20CAR
2022 · W2CAR @ NYG16–19NYG
2021 · W7CAR @ NYG3–25NYG
2015 · W15CAR @ NYG38–35CAR
2013 · W3NYG @ CAR0–38CAR
2012 · W3NYG @ CAR36–7NYG
2010 · W1CAR @ NYG18–31NYG
2009 · W16CAR @ NYG41–9CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–CAR
NYGQ1 15:00513Punt0–0
CARQ1 12:5637Punt0–0
NYGQ1 10:21521Field goal3–0
CARQ1 7:24575Touchdown3–7
NYGQ1 4:38736Turnover on downs3–7
CARQ1 0:4538Touchdown3–14
NYGQ2 14:0634Punt3–14
CARQ2 13:08651Field goal3–17
NYGQ2 8:44580Touchdown10–17
CARQ2 6:37731Field goal10–20
NYGQ2 2:36640Field goal13–20
CARQ2 0:2000End of half13–20
CARQ3 15:0036Punt13–20
NYGQ3 13:101275Field goal16–20
CARQ3 7:341134Turnover16–20
NYGQ3 3:34453Turnover16–20
CARQ3 1:301053Touchdown16–27
NYGQ4 11:2121Turnover16–27
CARQ4 10:3732Turnover16–27
NYGQ4 8:53234Touchdown24–27
CARQ4 8:081254Field goal24–30
NYGQ4 2:16475Touchdown31–30
CARQ4 1:08630Field goal31–33
NYGQ4 0:0100End of half31–33

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning22/3632622
Odell Beckham Jr.1/15710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley15483.20
Eli Manning122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.8141311
Saquon Barkley44812
Sterling Shepard47750
Russell Shepard34520
Jawill Davis24270
Rhett Ellison23170
Scott Simonson0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton21/3523722

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey17583.40
Cam Newton8293.60
DJ Moore11818.00
C.J. Anderson492.30
Alex Armah144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Devin Funchess47530
DJ Moore44490
Ian Thomas36380
Curtis Samuel24371
Christian McCaffrey56351
Jarius Wright36250
Torrey Smith0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.0%2.7%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

4.76%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.3%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.38
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+2.68