Closing spread
CAR -7
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.016EPA / play+0.067
- 39.9%Success rate48.0%
- +0.054EPA / dropback+0.086
- -0.054EPA / rush+0.033
- 9.5%Explosive rate10.7%
- +0.30CPOE+2.75
- 36.5%Third-down rate42.1%
- 51.8%Red-zone TD rate68.2%
- 1.89Points / drive2.20
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.4 points. CAR are 5-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 22/36 | 326 | 2 | 2 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 1/1 | 57 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 15 | 48 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 8 | 14 | 131 | 1 |
| Saquon Barkley | 4 | 4 | 81 | 2 |
| Sterling Shepard | 4 | 7 | 75 | 0 |
| Russell Shepard | 3 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Jawill Davis | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Scott Simonson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 21/35 | 237 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 17 | 58 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Alex Armah | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Funchess | 4 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 4 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 3 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 2 | 4 | 37 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 5 | 6 | 35 | 1 |
| Jarius Wright | 3 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
4.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.38
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.68