Closing spread
CAR -4.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
-1.6est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.074EPA / play+0.025
- 45.5%Success rate44.0%
- +0.153EPA / dropback+0.106
- -0.022EPA / rush-0.119
- 10.3%Explosive rate8.0%
- +0.41CPOE-1.12
- 42.1%Third-down rate37.1%
- 71.5%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 2.31Points / drive2.02
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.4 points. NYG are 8-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 25/45 | 340 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 8 | 100 | 12.5 | 0 |
| Cameron Artis-Payne | 14 | 59 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted Ginn | 6 | 14 | 85 | 2 |
| Greg Olsen | 6 | 8 | 79 | 1 |
| Corey Brown | 3 | 4 | 51 | 1 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 4 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Cameron Artis-Payne | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 2 | 7 | 30 | 1 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 29/46 | 245 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashad Jennings | 16 | 107 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Shane Vereen | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Andre Williams | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 6 | 9 | 76 | 1 |
| Rueben Randle | 4 | 5 | 47 | 1 |
| Shane Vereen | 8 | 10 | 43 | 1 |
| Will Tye | 5 | 8 | 43 | 1 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Myles White | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Dwayne Harris | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Jerome Cunningham | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.6%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.06
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-1.65