2015 · Week 15

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

38·35

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 41°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CAR -4.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

-1.6est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapGiants
  • +0.074EPA / play+0.025
  • 45.5%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.153EPA / dropback+0.106
  • -0.022EPA / rush-0.119
  • 10.3%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +0.41CPOE-1.12
  • 42.1%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 71.5%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
  • 2.31Points / drive2.02
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46.4 points. NYG are 8-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W10NYG @ CAR17–20CAR
2022 · W2CAR @ NYG16–19NYG
2021 · W7CAR @ NYG3–25NYG
2018 · W5NYG @ CAR31–33CAR
2013 · W3NYG @ CAR0–38CAR
2012 · W3NYG @ CAR36–7NYG
2010 · W1CAR @ NYG18–31NYG
2009 · W16CAR @ NYG41–9CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–NYG
NYGQ1 15:0067Punt0–0
CARQ1 12:3831Punt0–0
NYGQ1 11:3539Punt0–0
CARQ1 10:19986Touchdown7–0
NYGQ1 5:331065Touchdown7–7
CARQ1 1:24612Punt7–7
NYGQ2 13:52728Punt7–7
CARQ2 10:45416Punt7–7
NYGQ2 8:59621Punt7–7
CARQ2 5:4630Punt7–7
NYGQ2 4:1829Turnover7–7
CARQ2 3:30346Touchdown14–7
NYGQ2 2:1439Punt14–7
CARQ2 1:24972Touchdown21–7
NYGQ2 0:1512End of half21–7
CARQ3 15:0034Punt21–7
NYGQ3 13:3032Punt21–7
CARQ3 12:46780Touchdown28–7
NYGQ3 10:0335Punt28–7
CARQ3 8:16737Touchdown35–7
NYGQ3 5:321370Touchdown35–14
CARQ3 1:1837Punt35–14
NYGQ4 14:41466Touchdown35–21
CARQ4 13:24862Missed field goal35–21
NYGQ4 8:52433Turnover35–21
CARQ4 7:3320Turnover35–21
NYGQ4 6:43314Touchdown35–28
CARQ4 5:2738Punt35–28
NYGQ4 4:17766Touchdown35–35
CARQ4 1:46649Field goal38–35

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton25/4534050

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Newton810012.50
Cameron Artis-Payne14594.20
Fozzy Whittaker221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ted Ginn614852
Greg Olsen68791
Corey Brown34511
Jerricho Cotchery46470
Cameron Artis-Payne22340
Devin Funchess27301
Fozzy Whittaker22140

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning29/4624541

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashad Jennings161076.71
Shane Vereen4297.30
Andre Williams6213.50
Eli Manning144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.69761
Rueben Randle45471
Shane Vereen810431
Will Tye58431
Hakeem Nicks13100
Myles White11100
Dwayne Harris2390
Jerome Cunningham1370
Rashad Jennings1300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.6%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.06
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-1.65