2013 · Week 3

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

0·38

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

NYG -1

Total

46.5

Model margin

+4.7est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.142EPA / play+0.050
  • 40.2%Success rate42.1%
  • -0.087EPA / dropback+0.130
  • -0.235EPA / rush-0.056
  • 8.8%Explosive rate7.3%
  • -3.07CPOE+1.02
  • 32.2%Third-down rate44.3%
  • 58.7%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
  • 1.06Points / drive2.03
  • 4.0%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46.4 points. CAR are 5-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W10NYG @ CAR17–20CAR
2022 · W2CAR @ NYG16–19NYG
2021 · W7CAR @ NYG3–25NYG
2018 · W5NYG @ CAR31–33CAR
2015 · W15CAR @ NYG38–35CAR
2012 · W3NYG @ CAR36–7NYG
2010 · W1CAR @ NYG18–31NYG
2009 · W16CAR @ NYG41–9CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–CAR
NYGQ1 15:00615Punt0–0
NYGQ1 11:1800Punt0–0
CARQ1 11:143-13Punt0–0
NYGQ1 9:483-16Punt0–0
CARQ1 8:231259Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 2:333-3Punt0–7
NYGQ1 0:4032Punt0–7
CARQ2 14:4020Turnover0–7
NYGQ2 13:5447Missed field goal0–7
CARQ2 11:381052Field goal0–10
NYGQ2 6:4468Punt0–10
CARQ2 3:451465Touchdown0–17
NYGQ2 0:1215End of half0–17
CARQ3 15:00680Touchdown0–24
NYGQ3 11:3532Turnover0–24
CARQ3 10:50738Touchdown0–31
NYGQ3 6:581046Punt0–31
CARQ3 1:37682Touchdown0–38
NYGQ4 13:30450Turnover0–38
CARQ4 11:381140Turnover on downs0–38
NYGQ4 3:55518Turnover on downs0–38
CARQ4 3:0930Punt0–38
NYGQ4 1:43516Turnover0–38
CARQ4 0:4500End of half0–38

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning12/2311901
Curtis Painter2/41601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Wilson11393.50
Eli Manning11414.00
Da'Rel Scott155.00
Brandon Jacobs320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rueben Randle25400
Brandon Myers35330
Victor Cruz38250
Da'Rel Scott23170
Louis Murphy1180
Jerrel Jernigan1150
Bear Pascoe1220
Hakeem Nicks0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton15/2722331

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams231205.20
Cam Newton7456.41
Ted Ginn11111.00
Richie Brockel111.00
Armond Smith300.00
Derek Anderson2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ted Ginn34711
Greg Olsen48540
Brandon LaFell35532
Steve Smith37400
Domenik Hixon1180
DeAngelo Williams12-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.00%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.5%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.18
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.67