Closing spread
NYG -1
Total
46.5
Model margin
+4.7est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Panthers
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.142EPA / play+0.050
- 40.2%Success rate42.1%
- -0.087EPA / dropback+0.130
- -0.235EPA / rush-0.056
- 8.8%Explosive rate7.3%
- -3.07CPOE+1.02
- 32.2%Third-down rate44.3%
- 58.7%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
- 1.06Points / drive2.03
- 4.0%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.4 points. CAR are 5-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 12/23 | 119 | 0 | 1 |
| Curtis Painter | 2/4 | 16 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Wilson | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Da'Rel Scott | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rueben Randle | 2 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Brandon Myers | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Victor Cruz | 3 | 8 | 25 | 0 |
| Da'Rel Scott | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Louis Murphy | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jerrel Jernigan | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Bear Pascoe | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 15/27 | 223 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 23 | 120 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 7 | 45 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Richie Brockel | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Armond Smith | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted Ginn | 3 | 4 | 71 | 1 |
| Greg Olsen | 4 | 8 | 54 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 3 | 5 | 53 | 2 |
| Steve Smith | 3 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Domenik Hixon | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.00%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.5%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.18
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.67