2012 · Week 3

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

36·7

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

CAR -2.5

Total

49

Model margin

+3.3est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.086EPA / play+0.081
  • 46.8%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.142EPA / dropback+0.158
  • -0.000EPA / rush-0.026
  • 10.8%Explosive rate11.0%
  • +0.81CPOE-1.55
  • 41.8%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 57.2%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
  • 2.27Points / drive1.90
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46.4 points. CAR are 5-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W10NYG @ CAR17–20CAR
2022 · W2CAR @ NYG16–19NYG
2021 · W7CAR @ NYG3–25NYG
2018 · W5NYG @ CAR31–33CAR
2015 · W15CAR @ NYG38–35CAR
2013 · W3NYG @ CAR0–38CAR
2010 · W1CAR @ NYG18–31NYG
2009 · W16CAR @ NYG41–9CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–CAR
NYGQ1 15:00880Touchdown7–0
CARQ1 11:38735Punt7–0
NYGQ1 8:30851Field goal10–0
CARQ1 3:46521Punt10–0
NYGQ1 1:42972Touchdown17–0
CARQ2 12:03625Punt17–0
NYGQ2 9:121167Field goal20–0
CARQ2 3:13641Turnover20–0
NYGQ2 1:18417Punt20–0
CARQ2 0:3713End of half20–0
CARQ3 15:0000Field goal20–0
NYGQ3 14:5237Field goal23–0
CARQ3 12:49114Touchdown23–0
CARQ3 12:0710Touchdown23–0
CARQ3 12:0212Touchdown23–0
CARQ3 11:261064Touchdown23–7
NYGQ3 6:25963Field goal26–7
CARQ3 0:50614Turnover26–7
NYGQ4 13:31841Touchdown33–7
CARQ4 9:401062Turnover33–7
NYGQ4 6:253-3Punt33–7
NYGQ4 4:26610Field goal36–7
CARQ4 1:09446End of half36–7

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning27/3528810
David Carr1/2400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Andre Brown201135.72
Da'Rel Scott691.50
Eli Manning252.50
David Wilson1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ramses Barden9101380
Martellus Bennett67731
Victor Cruz68420
Andre Brown35170
Rueben Randle1340
David Wilson1130
Bear Pascoe0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton16/3024203
Derek Anderson3/34600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams11504.50
Cam Newton661.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Olsen714980
Steve Smith44860
Brandon LaFell15270
DeAngelo Williams22230
Louis Murphy1370

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.0%

Expected total

47.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.85
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.34