Closing spread
CAR -2.5
Total
49
Model margin
+3.3est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.086EPA / play+0.081
- 46.8%Success rate44.9%
- +0.142EPA / dropback+0.158
- -0.000EPA / rush-0.026
- 10.8%Explosive rate11.0%
- +0.81CPOE-1.55
- 41.8%Third-down rate42.2%
- 57.2%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
- 2.27Points / drive1.90
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.4 points. CAR are 5-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 27/35 | 288 | 1 | 0 |
| David Carr | 1/2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Brown | 20 | 113 | 5.7 | 2 |
| Da'Rel Scott | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| David Wilson | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ramses Barden | 9 | 10 | 138 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 6 | 7 | 73 | 1 |
| Victor Cruz | 6 | 8 | 42 | 0 |
| Andre Brown | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Rueben Randle | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| David Wilson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Bear Pascoe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 16/30 | 242 | 0 | 3 |
| Derek Anderson | 3/3 | 46 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 11 | 50 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 7 | 14 | 98 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 4 | 4 | 86 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 1 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Louis Murphy | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
47.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.85
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.34