Closing spread
NYG -5.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+4.2est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.249EPA / play-0.006
- 33.5%Success rate44.3%
- -0.274EPA / dropback+0.081
- -0.215EPA / rush-0.118
- 8.1%Explosive rate10.7%
- -7.94CPOE+2.60
- 30.0%Third-down rate37.0%
- 44.3%Red-zone TD rate67.4%
- 0.77Points / drive1.81
- 3.5%Turnover rate4.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.4 points. NYG are 8-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Moore | 14/33 | 182 | 1 | 3 |
| Jimmy Clausen | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 16 | 62 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 5 | 9 | 75 | 1 |
| Dwayne Jarrett | 2 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Mike Goodson | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 2 | 8 | 22 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 20/30 | 263 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 20 | 76 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 12 | 44 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Manningham | 4 | 4 | 85 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 4 | 8 | 75 | 3 |
| Steve Smith | 5 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Kevin Boss | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Travis Beckum | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Ramses Barden | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.3%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.72
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.21