2010 · Week 1

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Matt Moore

18·31

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

New Meadowlands Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 64°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

NYG -5.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+4.2est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapGiants
  • -0.249EPA / play-0.006
  • 33.5%Success rate44.3%
  • -0.274EPA / dropback+0.081
  • -0.215EPA / rush-0.118
  • 8.1%Explosive rate10.7%
  • -7.94CPOE+2.60
  • 30.0%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 44.3%Red-zone TD rate67.4%
  • 0.77Points / drive1.81
  • 3.5%Turnover rate4.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46.4 points. NYG are 8-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W10NYG @ CAR17–20CAR
2022 · W2CAR @ NYG16–19NYG
2021 · W7CAR @ NYG3–25NYG
2018 · W5NYG @ CAR31–33CAR
2015 · W15CAR @ NYG38–35CAR
2013 · W3NYG @ CAR0–38CAR
2012 · W3NYG @ CAR36–7NYG
2009 · W16CAR @ NYG41–9CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–NYG
CARQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
NYGQ1 12:4758Turnover0–0
CARQ1 10:58331Turnover0–0
NYGQ1 9:373-4Punt0–0
CARQ1 7:21626Field goal3–0
NYGQ1 3:42768Touchdown3–7
CARQ1 0:02621Field goal6–7
NYGQ2 11:42622Turnover6–7
CARQ2 9:2434Punt6–7
NYGQ2 8:16719Punt6–7
CARQ2 3:53624Field goal9–7
NYGQ2 1:46967Touchdown9–14
CARQ2 0:45550Touchdown16–14
NYGQ2 0:0300End of half16–14
NYGQ3 15:001060Field goal16–17
CARQ3 9:031042Turnover16–17
NYGQ3 4:30643Touchdown16–24
CARQ3 1:423-5Punt16–24
NYGQ4 15:00762Touchdown16–31
CARQ4 11:361351Turnover16–31
NYGQ4 8:3335Turnover16–31
CARQ4 6:5821Turnover16–31
NYGQ4 6:15414Safety18–31
CARQ4 3:571-10Turnover18–31
NYGQ4 3:45415Turnover18–31
CARQ4 2:383-7Punt18–31
NYGQ4 2:0000End of half18–31

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Moore14/3318213
Jimmy Clausen0/2000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams16623.90
Matt Moore2157.50
Jonathan Stewart5122.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith59751
Dwayne Jarrett24400
Mike Goodson35310
Brandon LaFell28220
Dante Rosario24140
Jeff King0200
Gary Barnidge0200

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning20/3026333

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Bradshaw20763.81
Brandon Jacobs12443.70
Eli Manning4-2-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mario Manningham44850
Hakeem Nicks48753
Steve Smith58430
Brandon Jacobs22210
Ahmad Bradshaw24170
Kevin Boss11110
Travis Beckum22110
Ramses Barden0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

3.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.3%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.72
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.21