2022 · Week 2

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Baker Mayfield

16·19

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf

Closing spread

CAR -1

Total

44

Model margin

+6.3est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapGiants
  • -0.036EPA / play+0.033
  • 40.8%Success rate45.0%
  • -0.062EPA / dropback+0.058
  • -0.005EPA / rush-0.004
  • 9.4%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -4.71CPOE+1.68
  • 31.6%Third-down rate37.7%
  • 59.6%Red-zone TD rate71.3%
  • 1.70Points / drive2.02
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46.4 points. NYG are 8-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W10NYG @ CAR17–20CAR
2021 · W7CAR @ NYG3–25NYG
2018 · W5NYG @ CAR31–33CAR
2015 · W15CAR @ NYG38–35CAR
2013 · W3NYG @ CAR0–38CAR
2012 · W3NYG @ CAR36–7NYG
2010 · W1CAR @ NYG18–31NYG
2009 · W16CAR @ NYG41–9CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–NYG
CARQ1 15:0000Field goal0–0
NYGQ1 14:5234Field goal0–3
CARQ1 12:50610Turnover0–3
NYGQ1 10:171225Field goal0–6
CARQ1 2:301258Field goal3–6
NYGQ2 12:15618Punt3–6
CARQ2 8:49628Punt3–6
NYGQ2 6:0434Punt3–6
CARQ2 5:19934Field goal6–6
NYGQ2 0:5639End of half6–6
NYGQ3 15:003-1Punt6–6
CARQ3 13:27362Touchdown13–6
NYGQ3 12:27875Touchdown13–13
CARQ3 9:19515Punt13–13
NYGQ3 6:39516Punt13–13
CARQ3 4:5138Punt13–13
NYGQ3 3:1430Punt13–13
CARQ3 1:2430Punt13–13
NYGQ3 0:55945Field goal13–16
CARQ4 12:31655Field goal16–16
NYGQ4 10:461147Field goal16–19
CARQ4 3:3455Punt16–19
NYGQ4 2:06525End of half16–19

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield14/2914510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey151026.80
Baker Mayfield6355.80
D'Onta Foreman294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore36431
Robbie Chosen35320
Christian McCaffrey45260
Giovanni Ricci11160
Ian Thomas13130
Stephen Sullivan11130
Shi Smith1620

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones22/3417610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley21723.40
Daniel Jones10212.10
Gary Brightwell11414.00
Matt Breida1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Richie James56510
David Sills34370
Sterling Shepard610340
Tanner Hudson23220
Saquon Barkley34160
Daniel Bellinger11161
Matt Breida0100
Kadarius Toney2300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.2%6.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

1.90%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.8%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.06
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.70
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.34