Closing spread
CAR -1
Total
44
Model margin
+6.3est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play+0.033
- 40.8%Success rate45.0%
- -0.062EPA / dropback+0.058
- -0.005EPA / rush-0.004
- 9.4%Explosive rate7.9%
- -4.71CPOE+1.68
- 31.6%Third-down rate37.7%
- 59.6%Red-zone TD rate71.3%
- 1.70Points / drive2.02
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.4 points. NYG are 8-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 14/29 | 145 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 15 | 102 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 6 | 35 | 5.8 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 3 | 6 | 43 | 1 |
| Robbie Chosen | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Giovanni Ricci | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Stephen Sullivan | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Shi Smith | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 22/34 | 176 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 21 | 72 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 10 | 21 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Gary Brightwell | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richie James | 5 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| David Sills | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 6 | 10 | 34 | 0 |
| Tanner Hudson | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 1 | 1 | 16 | 1 |
| Matt Breida | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.8%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.06
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+4.70
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.34