2024 · Week 10

Final / OT

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

17·20

Panthers

Carolina

QB Andy Dalton

Allianz Arena · outdoors

Closing spread

NYG -6.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+1.5est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.088EPA / play-0.040
  • 41.1%Success rate41.8%
  • -0.073EPA / dropback-0.041
  • -0.116EPA / rush-0.040
  • 6.8%Explosive rate7.5%
  • -1.45CPOE+0.06
  • 36.0%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 47.5%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
  • 1.28Points / drive1.88
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46.4 points. CAR are 5-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W2CAR @ NYG16–19NYG
2021 · W7CAR @ NYG3–25NYG
2018 · W5NYG @ CAR31–33CAR
2015 · W15CAR @ NYG38–35CAR
2013 · W3NYG @ CAR0–38CAR
2012 · W3NYG @ CAR36–7NYG
2010 · W1CAR @ NYG18–31NYG
2009 · W16CAR @ NYG41–9CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–CAR
CARQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
NYGQ1 12:5542Punt0–0
CARQ1 11:48890Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 7:48514Punt0–7
CARQ1 5:39961Field goal0–10
NYGQ2 14:55635Missed field goal0–10
CARQ2 11:4430Punt0–10
NYGQ2 10:26517Punt0–10
CARQ2 7:0036Punt0–10
NYGQ2 5:25843Turnover0–10
CARQ2 1:48627Punt0–10
NYGQ2 0:1800End of half0–10
NYGQ3 15:001065Touchdown7–10
CARQ3 8:541185Touchdown7–17
NYGQ3 3:333-2Punt7–17
CARQ3 1:3233Punt7–17
NYGQ3 0:311396Touchdown14–17
CARQ4 8:3322Turnover14–17
NYGQ4 8:01414Turnover14–17
CARQ4 5:5638Punt14–17
NYGQ4 4:2946Punt14–17
CARQ4 3:27613Punt14–17
NYGQ4 2:231055Field goal17–17
CARQ4 0:0500End of half17–17
NYGOT1-2Turnover17–17
CAROT35Field goal17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones22/3719002

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyrone Tracy Jr.181035.71
Devin Singletary8405.00
Daniel Jones7263.71
Malik Nabers1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wan'Dale Robinson58510
Malik Nabers610500
Jalin Hyatt44390
Theo Johnson46370
Isaiah Hodgins1170
Devin Singletary1150
Tyrone Tracy Jr.1210

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young15/2512610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard281535.51
Bryce Young23015.00
Miles Sanders252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jalen Coker38410
Xavier Legette34400
David Moore24180
Chuba Hubbard46160
Ja'Tavion Sanders2281
Ian Thomas1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.79%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.0%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.02
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.27
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.46