Closing spread
NYG -6.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+1.5est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.088EPA / play-0.040
- 41.1%Success rate41.8%
- -0.073EPA / dropback-0.041
- -0.116EPA / rush-0.040
- 6.8%Explosive rate7.5%
- -1.45CPOE+0.06
- 36.0%Third-down rate36.3%
- 47.5%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
- 1.28Points / drive1.88
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.4 points. CAR are 5-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 22/37 | 190 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 18 | 103 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary | 8 | 40 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Malik Nabers | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 5 | 8 | 51 | 0 |
| Malik Nabers | 6 | 10 | 50 | 0 |
| Jalin Hyatt | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Theo Johnson | 4 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 15/25 | 126 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 28 | 153 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Bryce Young | 2 | 30 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Coker | 3 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Xavier Legette | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| David Moore | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 4 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.79%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.02
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.27
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.46