2021 · Week 7

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Sam Darnold

3·25

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 57°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

CAR -3

Total

42.5

Model margin

+1.9est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapGiants
  • -0.132EPA / play-0.141
  • 41.2%Success rate40.2%
  • -0.158EPA / dropback-0.146
  • -0.089EPA / rush-0.133
  • 7.3%Explosive rate5.7%
  • -7.50CPOE-4.62
  • 36.1%Third-down rate35.9%
  • 53.0%Red-zone TD rate47.5%
  • 1.43Points / drive1.20
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46.4 points. NYG are 8-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W10NYG @ CAR17–20CAR
2022 · W2CAR @ NYG16–19NYG
2018 · W5NYG @ CAR31–33CAR
2015 · W15CAR @ NYG38–35CAR
2013 · W3NYG @ CAR0–38CAR
2012 · W3NYG @ CAR36–7NYG
2010 · W1CAR @ NYG18–31NYG
2009 · W16CAR @ NYG41–9CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–NYG
CARQ1 15:001246Field goal3–0
NYGQ1 8:37532Punt3–0
CARQ1 5:0731Punt3–0
NYGQ1 3:43936Turnover on downs3–0
CARQ1 0:3632Safety3–2
NYGQ2 14:53637Field goal3–5
CARQ2 12:5337Punt3–5
NYGQ2 11:47615Punt3–5
CARQ2 8:131062Turnover3–5
NYGQ2 3:19738Punt3–5
CARQ2 0:5533Punt3–5
NYGQ2 0:0800End of half3–5
NYGQ3 15:003-12Punt3–5
CARQ3 13:38513Punt3–5
NYGQ3 10:2736Punt3–5
CARQ3 9:0638Punt3–5
NYGQ3 7:321175Touchdown3–12
CARQ3 0:5931Punt3–12
NYGQ4 14:51519Field goal3–15
CARQ4 12:414-6Punt3–15
NYGQ4 11:261027Field goal3–18
CARQ4 5:544-6Turnover on downs3–24
NYGQ4 4:52119Touchdown3–25
CARQ4 4:461142Turnover on downs3–25
NYGQ4 2:48313End of half3–25

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold16/2511201
PJ Walker3/143300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard12282.30
Royce Freeman3186.00
PJ Walker11313.00
Shi Smith1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore610730
Chuba Hubbard45280
Keith Kirkwood35170
Robbie Chosen39140
Tommy Tremble22120
Royce Freeman1210
Colin Thompson0100
Ian Thomas0200
Shi Smith0200

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones23/3320310
Dante Pettis1/11600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devontae Booker14513.61
Daniel Jones8283.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darius Slayton59630
Evan Engram68440
Dante Pettis55391
John Ross22270
Daniel Jones11160
Devontae Booker23150
Kyle Rudolph2280
Collin Johnson1270
David Sills0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

7.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.1%

Expected total

40.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.16
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.87