Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
42.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.132EPA / play-0.141
- 41.2%Success rate40.2%
- -0.158EPA / dropback-0.146
- -0.089EPA / rush-0.133
- 7.3%Explosive rate5.7%
- -7.50CPOE-4.62
- 36.1%Third-down rate35.9%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate47.5%
- 1.43Points / drive1.20
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.4 points. NYG are 8-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 16/25 | 112 | 0 | 1 |
| PJ Walker | 3/14 | 33 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 12 | 28 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| PJ Walker | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Shi Smith | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 6 | 10 | 73 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Keith Kirkwood | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 3 | 9 | 14 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Colin Thompson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Shi Smith | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 23/33 | 203 | 1 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis | 1/1 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devontae Booker | 14 | 51 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Daniel Jones | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | 5 | 9 | 63 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 6 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis | 5 | 5 | 39 | 1 |
| John Ross | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Collin Johnson | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| David Sills | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
40.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.16
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.87