Closing spread
CIN -10.5
Total
40
Model margin
+2.6est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CIN lead 7–3 since 1999
CIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. CIN are 9-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 14:06 | 1 | 3 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 14:03 | 10 | 71 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 8:34 | 6 | 23 | Missed field goal | 0–7 |
| CIN | Q1 5:48 | 8 | 49 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| LV | Q1 2:27 | 10 | 49 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| CIN | Q2 12:36 | 7 | 59 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| LV | Q2 8:44 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–14 |
| CIN | Q2 7:48 | 6 | 11 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| LV | Q2 5:22 | 12 | 39 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| CIN | Q2 0:22 | 1 | 7 | End of half | 3–14 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–14 |
| CIN | Q3 13:08 | 14 | 98 | Touchdown | 3–21 |
| LV | Q3 5:31 | 7 | 19 | Turnover on downs | 3–21 |
| CIN | Q3 2:53 | 5 | 56 | Touchdown | 3–27 |
| LV | Q3 0:59 | 11 | 76 | Touchdown | 10–27 |
| CIN | Q4 11:26 | 9 | 66 | Turnover | 10–27 |
| LV | Q4 5:22 | 6 | 6 | Turnover on downs | 10–27 |
| CIN | Q4 3:46 | 5 | 21 | End of half | 10–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 20/28 | 297 | 2 | 3 |
| Anthony Wright | 1/1 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 30 | 117 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Kenny Watson | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Anthony Wright | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.20
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+2.60
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.