2006 · Week 14 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 51°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
PHI -2
Total
40
Model margin
-0.5est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.055EPA / play-0.006
- 43.0%Success rate40.9%
- +0.117EPA / dropback+0.034
- -0.049EPA / rush-0.052
- 11.1%Explosive rate10.8%
- -1.03CPOE-2.46
- 42.8%Third-down rate38.5%
- 64.7%Red-zone TD rate52.5%
- 1.67Points / drive1.58
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. WAS are 26-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 15/23 | 164 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 17 | 88 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 15/27 | 182 | 1 | 2 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1/1 | 40 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladell Betts | 33 | 171 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 4 | 38 | 9.5 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.8%
Expected total
47.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.82
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.31
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-0.49