2006 · Week 14 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 51°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
PHI -2
Total
40
Model margin
-0.5est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.055EPA / play-0.006
- 43.0%Success rate40.9%
- +0.117EPA / dropback+0.034
- -0.049EPA / rush-0.052
- 11.1%Explosive rate10.8%
- -1.03CPOE-2.46
- 42.8%Third-down rate38.5%
- 64.7%Red-zone TD rate52.5%
- 1.67Points / drive1.58
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–22 since 1999
Meetings average 45.4 points. WAS are 27-27-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PHI–WAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 13:24 | 10 | 80 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| PHI | Q1 8:50 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–3 |
| WAS | Q1 6:33 | 3 | 7 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| PHI | Q1 5:18 | 5 | 26 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| WAS | Q1 3:09 | 11 | 52 | Opp touchdown | 14–3 |
| WAS | Q2 10:54 | 4 | -1 | Punt | 14–3 |
| WAS | Q2 8:41 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 14–3 |
| PHI | Q2 7:37 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 21–3 |
| WAS | Q2 4:40 | 9 | 63 | Field goal | 21–6 |
| PHI | Q2 0:56 | 5 | 47 | End of half | 21–6 |
| WAS | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 55 | Field goal | 21–9 |
| PHI | Q3 10:30 | 8 | 46 | Punt | 21–9 |
| WAS | Q3 5:38 | 11 | 80 | Touchdown | 21–16 |
| PHI | Q3 0:23 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 21–16 |
| WAS | Q4 13:58 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 21–16 |
| PHI | Q4 12:25 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 21–16 |
| WAS | Q4 11:21 | 11 | 73 | Field goal | 21–19 |
| PHI | Q4 4:58 | 7 | 45 | End of half | 21–19 |
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 15/23 | 164 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 17 | 88 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 15/27 | 182 | 1 | 2 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1/1 | 40 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladell Betts | 33 | 171 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 4 | 38 | 9.5 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.8%
Expected total
47.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.82
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.31
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-0.49