Closing spread
SEA -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.075EPA / play-0.045
- 40.2%Success rate42.0%
- -0.031EPA / dropback+0.036
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.164
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.2%
- -1.93CPOE-3.07
- 37.5%Third-down rate39.4%
- 55.0%Red-zone TD rate53.4%
- 1.49Points / drive1.52
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. ARI are 21-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 20/28 | 243 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 22 | 76 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 3 | 32 | 10.7 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Leinart | 21/34 | 232 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 26 | 115 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Marcel Shipp | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| J.J. Arrington | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
| Matt Leinart | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
6.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.48
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.04