Closing spread
HOU -1
Total
42
Model margin
+3.7est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.086EPA / play-0.062
- 37.6%Success rate43.2%
- -0.059EPA / dropback-0.069
- -0.118EPA / rush-0.052
- 9.1%Explosive rate6.8%
- -5.37CPOE+4.14
- 32.7%Third-down rate38.7%
- 58.2%Red-zone TD rate64.6%
- 1.35Points / drive1.41
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 25–24 since 1999
HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. HOU are 29-19-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TEN–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 13:25 | 3 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 11:28 | 3 | 32 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 10:10 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 8:24 | 9 | 56 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| HOU | Q1 3:06 | 5 | 32 | Punt | 3–0 |
| TEN | Q1 0:03 | 5 | 32 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| HOU | Q2 13:20 | 10 | 38 | Touchdown | 6–7 |
| TEN | Q2 7:54 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 6–7 |
| HOU | Q2 6:11 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 6–7 |
| TEN | Q2 3:29 | 8 | 20 | Punt | 6–7 |
| HOU | Q2 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 6–7 |
| HOU | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 73 | Touchdown | 6–14 |
| TEN | Q3 9:26 | 6 | 37 | Punt | 6–14 |
| HOU | Q3 5:58 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 6–14 |
| TEN | Q3 4:30 | 5 | 63 | Touchdown | 13–14 |
| HOU | Q3 1:49 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 13–14 |
| TEN | Q3 0:07 | 3 | 7 | Turnover | 13–14 |
| HOU | Q4 14:49 | 6 | 16 | Field goal | 13–17 |
| TEN | Q4 12:00 | 15 | 88 | Touchdown | 20–17 |
| HOU | Q4 3:53 | 6 | 33 | Field goal | 20–20 |
| TEN | Q4 2:09 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 20–20 |
| HOU | Q4 0:53 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–20 |
| TEN | OT | 7 | 62 | Touchdown | 26–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 19/29 | 218 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 20 | 88 | 4.4 | 2 |
| Vince Young | 7 | 86 | 12.3 | 1 |
| Chris Brown | 4 | 44 | 11.0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 17/23 | 140 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Dayne | 21 | 87 | 4.1 | 2 |
| Wali Lundy | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| David Carr | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.0%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.16
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.72