Closing spread
HOU -1
Total
42
Model margin
+3.7est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.086EPA / play-0.062
- 37.6%Success rate43.2%
- -0.059EPA / dropback-0.069
- -0.118EPA / rush-0.052
- 9.1%Explosive rate6.8%
- -5.37CPOE+4.14
- 32.7%Third-down rate38.7%
- 58.2%Red-zone TD rate64.6%
- 1.35Points / drive1.41
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. HOU are 28-19-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 19/29 | 218 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 20 | 88 | 4.4 | 2 |
| Vince Young | 7 | 86 | 12.3 | 1 |
| Chris Brown | 4 | 44 | 11.0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 17/23 | 140 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Dayne | 21 | 87 | 4.1 | 2 |
| Wali Lundy | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| David Carr | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.0%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.16
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.72