Closing spread
IND -3.5
Total
55
Model margin
+3.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.044EPA / play+0.153
- 45.3%Success rate51.4%
- +0.138EPA / dropback+0.294
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.043
- 9.2%Explosive rate8.8%
- +5.38CPOE+4.70
- 36.8%Third-down rate56.7%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
- 1.98Points / drive2.54
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.1 points. IND are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 14/28 | 176 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 22 | 79 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Kenny Watson | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Reggie McNeal | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 29/36 | 282 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Rhodes | 19 | 52 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 8 | 50 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
47.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.26
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.82