Closing spread
IND -3.5
Total
55
Model margin
+3.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.044EPA / play+0.153
- 45.3%Success rate51.4%
- +0.138EPA / dropback+0.294
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.043
- 9.2%Explosive rate8.8%
- +5.38CPOE+4.70
- 36.8%Third-down rate56.7%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
- 1.98Points / drive2.54
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.1 points. IND are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CIN–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 5 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 12:44 | 9 | 29 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| CIN | Q1 8:00 | 12 | 66 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| IND | Q1 1:05 | 11 | 70 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| CIN | Q2 10:25 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–10 |
| CIN | Q2 8:56 | 5 | 25 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| IND | Q2 6:49 | 13 | 71 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| CIN | Q2 0:13 | 2 | 8 | End of half | 10–17 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 36 | Turnover on downs | 10–17 |
| CIN | Q3 12:05 | 5 | 43 | Field goal | 13–17 |
| IND | Q3 9:14 | 6 | 75 | Touchdown | 13–24 |
| CIN | Q3 6:36 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 13–24 |
| IND | Q3 5:34 | 7 | 52 | Touchdown | 13–31 |
| CIN | Q3 2:16 | 8 | 69 | Field goal | 16–31 |
| IND | Q4 13:07 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 16–31 |
| CIN | Q4 12:07 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 16–31 |
| IND | Q4 11:14 | 10 | 62 | Field goal | 16–34 |
| CIN | Q4 5:25 | 5 | 5 | Punt | 16–34 |
| IND | Q4 3:48 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 16–34 |
| CIN | Q4 3:24 | 13 | 54 | End of half | 16–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 14/28 | 176 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 22 | 79 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Kenny Watson | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Reggie McNeal | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 29/36 | 282 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Rhodes | 19 | 52 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 8 | 50 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
47.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.26
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.82