Closing spread
BAL -13
Total
35.5
Model margin
+6.4est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.197EPA / play-0.014
- 38.3%Success rate40.5%
- -0.178EPA / dropback+0.108
- -0.231EPA / rush-0.175
- 6.4%Explosive rate7.0%
- +3.75CPOE+3.00
- 34.0%Third-down rate42.7%
- 50.2%Red-zone TD rate50.8%
- 1.01Points / drive1.57
- 4.2%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. BAL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 23/32 | 223 | 2 | 2 |
| Josh Cribbs | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Wright | 8 | 37 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Reuben Droughns | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 13/21 | 238 | 2 | 1 |
| Steve McNair | 0/4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 22 | 109 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Mike Anderson | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Kyle Boller | 9 | 12 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Mark Clayton | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.9%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.85
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.77
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+6.40