Closing spread
DAL -4
Total
45
Model margin
+1.4est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play-0.050
- 45.5%Success rate39.9%
- +0.143EPA / dropback-0.078
- -0.024EPA / rush-0.021
- 9.8%Explosive rate10.3%
- +3.73CPOE-2.80
- 49.3%Third-down rate36.3%
- 66.8%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
- 2.18Points / drive1.44
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 47.9 points. ATL are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 11:51 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 8:26 | 11 | 66 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| ATL | Q1 1:32 | 4 | 18 | Opp touchdown | 14–0 |
| ATL | Q2 14:50 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 14–0 |
| DAL | Q2 13:38 | 4 | 3 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| ATL | Q2 11:53 | 2 | 12 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| DAL | Q2 11:11 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 14–7 |
| ATL | Q2 8:56 | 6 | 68 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| DAL | Q2 6:30 | 6 | 76 | Touchdown | 21–14 |
| ATL | Q2 3:08 | 3 | 20 | Touchdown | 21–14 |
| ATL | Q2 2:05 | 7 | 57 | Touchdown | 21–21 |
| DAL | Q2 0:11 | 1 | -12 | End of half | 21–21 |
| ATL | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 55 | Touchdown | 21–28 |
| DAL | Q3 11:09 | 7 | 30 | Field goal | 24–28 |
| ATL | Q3 7:17 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 24–28 |
| DAL | Q3 5:57 | 8 | 72 | Touchdown | 31–28 |
| ATL | Q3 2:32 | 9 | 53 | Turnover on downs | 31–28 |
| DAL | Q4 12:46 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 31–28 |
| ATL | Q4 11:28 | 5 | 33 | Punt | 31–28 |
| DAL | Q4 8:50 | 11 | 80 | Touchdown | 38–28 |
| ATL | Q4 2:18 | 9 | 55 | Turnover | 38–28 |
| DAL | Q4 0:38 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 38–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 22/29 | 278 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 11 | 69 | 6.3 | 2 |
| Julius Jones | 13 | 26 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 16/24 | 237 | 4 | 1 |
| Matt Schaub | 3/5 | 33 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 18 | 56 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 8 | 56 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Justin Griffith | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.21
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.35