Closing spread
GB -6
Total
45
Model margin
+4.9est.
GB perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.112EPA / play-0.067
- 42.6%Success rate40.0%
- -0.057EPA / dropback-0.018
- -0.242EPA / rush-0.146
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.1%
- +0.25CPOE-5.72
- 33.0%Third-down rate38.9%
- 53.4%Red-zone TD rate36.6%
- 1.48Points / drive1.28
- 3.9%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. GB are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 16/26 | 135 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Arlen Harris | 9 | 18 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Aveion Cason | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Roy Williams | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 20/37 | 174 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 22 | 79 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Vernand Morency | 7 | 54 | 7.7 | 2 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
3.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.1%
Expected total
41.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.32
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.89