Closing spread
GB -6
Total
45
Model margin
+4.9est.
GB perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.112EPA / play-0.067
- 42.6%Success rate40.0%
- -0.057EPA / dropback-0.018
- -0.242EPA / rush-0.146
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.1%
- +0.25CPOE-5.72
- 33.0%Third-down rate38.9%
- 53.4%Red-zone TD rate36.6%
- 1.48Points / drive1.28
- 3.9%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 45.8 points. GB are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DET–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 12:54 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 11:17 | 7 | 30 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| GB | Q1 7:23 | 2 | 9 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| DET | Q1 6:46 | 2 | 1 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| GB | Q1 5:54 | 9 | 17 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| DET | Q1 2:51 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 3–3 |
| GB | Q1 0:54 | 10 | 58 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| DET | Q2 11:18 | 3 | -16 | Punt | 3–3 |
| GB | Q2 9:49 | 10 | 58 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| DET | Q2 5:35 | 8 | 42 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| GB | Q2 1:57 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 3–10 |
| DET | Q2 0:14 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–10 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–10 |
| DET | Q3 13:56 | 7 | 40 | Field goal | 6–10 |
| GB | Q3 9:59 | 6 | 33 | Punt | 6–10 |
| DET | Q3 6:11 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 6–10 |
| GB | Q3 5:45 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 6–10 |
| DET | Q3 1:49 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 6–10 |
| GB | Q3 1:42 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 6–10 |
| DET | Q3 1:30 | 7 | 35 | Punt | 6–10 |
| GB | Q4 13:04 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 6–10 |
| DET | Q4 11:40 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 9–10 |
| GB | Q4 9:33 | 13 | 78 | Touchdown | 9–17 |
| DET | Q4 2:48 | 5 | 0 | Turnover on downs | 9–17 |
| GB | Q4 0:35 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 9–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 16/26 | 135 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Arlen Harris | 9 | 18 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Aveion Cason | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Roy Williams | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 20/37 | 174 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 22 | 79 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Vernand Morency | 7 | 54 | 7.7 | 2 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
3.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.1%
Expected total
41.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.32
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.89