Closing spread
JAX -3.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
-0.4est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play-0.086
- 42.5%Success rate37.6%
- -0.026EPA / dropback-0.059
- +0.053EPA / rush-0.118
- 10.6%Explosive rate9.1%
- +0.26CPOE-5.37
- 39.0%Third-down rate32.7%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
- 1.59Points / drive1.35
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 13:04 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 11:17 | 5 | 38 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q1 9:00 | 10 | 67 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| TEN | Q1 3:03 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–7 |
| JAX | Q1 1:29 | 8 | 42 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| TEN | Q2 11:22 | 5 | 30 | Turnover on downs | 10–7 |
| JAX | Q2 9:04 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–7 |
| TEN | Q2 7:32 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–7 |
| JAX | Q2 6:29 | 10 | 30 | Turnover on downs | 10–7 |
| TEN | Q2 1:50 | 6 | 34 | Missed field goal | 10–7 |
| JAX | Q2 0:08 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–7 |
| TEN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| JAX | Q3 13:24 | 13 | 54 | Opp touchdown | 10–17 |
| JAX | Q3 4:51 | 6 | 21 | Opp touchdown | 10–24 |
| JAX | Q3 1:08 | 16 | 81 | Turnover on downs | 10–24 |
| TEN | Q4 7:45 | 7 | 11 | Punt | 10–24 |
| JAX | Q4 4:21 | 5 | 59 | Touchdown | 17–24 |
| TEN | Q4 2:37 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 17–24 |
| JAX | Q4 1:01 | 3 | 7 | Turnover | 17–24 |
| TEN | Q4 0:38 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 22/37 | 233 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 25 | 98 | 3.9 | 1 |
| David Garrard | 6 | 43 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 2 | 37 | 18.5 | 0 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Alvin Pearman | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 8/15 | 85 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 12 | 37 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Vince Young | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.9%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.44