Closing spread
SD -9.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+5.5est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. SD are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 12:57 | 8 | 74 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| KC | Q1 9:15 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 9:03 | 4 | -2 | Punt | 0–7 |
| KC | Q1 7:10 | 11 | 34 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 0:11 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| KC | Q2 14:45 | 3 | 9 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| LAC | Q2 13:01 | 8 | 38 | Punt | 3–7 |
| KC | Q2 8:51 | 8 | 31 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LAC | Q2 4:27 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 3–13 |
| LAC | Q2 2:53 | 1 | 85 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| LAC | Q2 2:41 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| KC | Q2 2:41 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–14 |
| LAC | Q2 2:14 | 3 | 16 | Punt | 3–14 |
| KC | Q2 1:48 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 3–14 |
| LAC | Q2 0:36 | 3 | 0 | End of half | 3–14 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–14 |
| KC | Q3 13:14 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 3–14 |
| LAC | Q3 11:16 | 7 | 21 | Punt | 3–14 |
| KC | Q3 8:10 | 10 | 55 | Field goal | 6–14 |
| LAC | Q3 2:22 | 8 | 31 | Field goal | 6–17 |
| KC | Q4 12:18 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 6–17 |
| LAC | Q4 11:00 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 6–17 |
| KC | Q4 10:08 | 6 | 33 | Field goal | 9–17 |
| LAC | Q4 7:01 | 6 | 65 | Field goal | 9–20 |
| KC | Q4 4:40 | 10 | 38 | Turnover on downs | 9–20 |
| LAC | Q4 2:06 | 4 | 10 | End of half | 9–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 23/41 | 185 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 19 | 84 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Dee Brown | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
3.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.6%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.23
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.15
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.48
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.