Closing spread
NYG -5.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.055EPA / play-0.017
- 43.0%Success rate45.6%
- +0.117EPA / dropback-0.017
- -0.049EPA / rush-0.017
- 11.1%Explosive rate9.6%
- -1.03CPOE-3.95
- 42.8%Third-down rate38.8%
- 64.7%Red-zone TD rate62.8%
- 1.67Points / drive1.77
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 19/28 | 237 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 19 | 97 | 5.1 | 2 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 8 | 48 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Jeff Garcia | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 28/40 | 282 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 19 | 75 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
3.00%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.69
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.06
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.94