Closing spread
SEA -10
Total
38
Model margin
+4.7est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.091EPA / play-0.075
- 39.6%Success rate40.2%
- -0.094EPA / dropback-0.031
- -0.088EPA / rush-0.130
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.2%
- -0.50CPOE-1.93
- 33.3%Third-down rate37.5%
- 46.1%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
- 1.43Points / drive1.49
- 3.1%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SEA are 29-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 14/25 | 162 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 29 | 144 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Arnaz Battle | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Maurice Hicks | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 20/37 | 220 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 23 | 73 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Maurice Morris | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.5%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.11
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.68