Closing spread
SF -3.5
Total
45
Model margin
+0.2est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.045EPA / play-0.091
- 42.0%Success rate39.6%
- +0.036EPA / dropback-0.094
- -0.164EPA / rush-0.088
- 7.2%Explosive rate9.6%
- -3.07CPOE-0.50
- 39.4%Third-down rate33.3%
- 53.4%Red-zone TD rate46.1%
- 1.52Points / drive1.43
- 2.7%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 29–22 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. SF are 26-24-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 42 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| ARI | Q1 10:19 | 4 | 65 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| SF | Q1 7:41 | 5 | 4 | Punt | 3–3 |
| ARI | Q1 4:25 | 8 | 49 | Touchdown | 10–3 |
| SF | Q1 0:59 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 10–3 |
| ARI | Q2 13:19 | 10 | 74 | Touchdown | 17–3 |
| SF | Q2 8:07 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 17–3 |
| ARI | Q2 6:27 | 8 | 33 | Field goal | 20–3 |
| SF | Q2 1:57 | 8 | 41 | Field goal | 20–6 |
| ARI | Q2 0:22 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–6 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 34 | Punt | 20–6 |
| SF | Q3 10:51 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 20–6 |
| SF | Q3 9:45 | 6 | 46 | Touchdown | 20–13 |
| ARI | Q3 6:25 | 11 | 58 | Field goal | 23–13 |
| SF | Q4 14:57 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 23–13 |
| ARI | Q4 14:33 | 6 | 8 | Punt | 23–13 |
| SF | Q4 10:19 | 1 | 1 | Turnover | 23–13 |
| ARI | Q4 10:09 | 3 | 4 | Field goal | 26–13 |
| SF | Q4 8:28 | 8 | 58 | Touchdown | 26–20 |
| ARI | Q4 5:00 | 7 | 51 | End of half | 26–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Leinart | 9/13 | 162 | 1 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 9/13 | 105 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 29 | 105 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Marcel Shipp | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| J.J. Arrington | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 5 | -2 | -0.4 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 18/29 | 190 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 11 | 51 | 4.6 | 2 |
| Maurice Hicks | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.6%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.59
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+0.21