Closing spread
PIT -4
Total
37
Model margin
+0.6est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.014EPA / play+0.004
- 40.5%Success rate43.1%
- +0.108EPA / dropback+0.069
- -0.175EPA / rush-0.085
- 7.0%Explosive rate9.2%
- +3.00CPOE+1.04
- 42.7%Third-down rate43.2%
- 50.8%Red-zone TD rate48.8%
- 1.57Points / drive1.68
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 21/31 | 256 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 24 | 77 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Mike Anderson | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 15/31 | 156 | 1 | 2 |
| Charlie Batch | 4/11 | 49 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 4 | 33 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Willie Parker | 13 | 29 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.7%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.95
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.61