Closing spread
ATL -6
Total
40.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.071EPA / play-0.050
- 41.2%Success rate39.9%
- -0.043EPA / dropback-0.078
- -0.112EPA / rush-0.021
- 8.2%Explosive rate10.3%
- -0.31CPOE-2.80
- 31.1%Third-down rate36.3%
- 59.1%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
- 1.29Points / drive1.44
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–22 since 1999
CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. ATL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 61 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| CAR | Q1 10:32 | 16 | 78 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| ATL | Q2 14:56 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 7–3 |
| CAR | Q2 12:55 | 9 | 44 | Punt | 7–3 |
| ATL | Q2 6:56 | 4 | 14 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| CAR | Q2 4:49 | 7 | 14 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| ATL | Q2 1:51 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–3 |
| CAR | Q2 1:13 | 2 | -5 | End of half | 10–3 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 10–3 |
| ATL | Q3 11:15 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 10–3 |
| CAR | Q3 8:41 | 13 | 27 | Punt | 10–3 |
| ATL | Q3 0:41 | 5 | 26 | Punt | 10–3 |
| CAR | Q4 13:48 | 7 | 9 | Punt | 10–3 |
| ATL | Q4 8:51 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–3 |
| CAR | Q4 6:54 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 10–3 |
| ATL | Q4 3:40 | 7 | 27 | Turnover on downs | 10–3 |
| CAR | Q4 1:19 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–3 |
| ATL | Q4 0:14 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 10–3 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Weinke | 4/7 | 32 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 28 | 102 | 3.6 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 21 | 82 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Chris Weinke | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 9/20 | 109 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 4 | 32 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Jerious Norwood | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Michael Jenkins | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.0%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.06
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.52
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.11