Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.044EPA / play-0.045
- 45.3%Success rate40.7%
- +0.138EPA / dropback-0.060
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.028
- 9.2%Explosive rate8.8%
- +5.38CPOE-2.37
- 36.8%Third-down rate37.1%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
- 1.98Points / drive1.52
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. DEN are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 21/40 | 209 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 30 | 129 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Kenny Watson | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 12/23 | 179 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Bell | 16 | 69 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Tatum Bell | 12 | 50 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Javon Walker | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.44
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.06
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.14