Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
45
Model margin
+0.0est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.063EPA / play+0.021
- 44.6%Success rate44.7%
- +0.161EPA / dropback+0.100
- -0.094EPA / rush-0.093
- 9.5%Explosive rate9.1%
- +5.14CPOE+2.34
- 40.1%Third-down rate38.3%
- 71.5%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
- 2.38Points / drive1.89
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. DEN are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 15/22 | 157 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 17 | 58 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Boyd | 5 | 6 | 96 | 1 |
| Tee Higgins | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 12/22 | 98 | 0 | 0 |
| Drew Lock | 6/12 | 88 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 15 | 72 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 15 | 53 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Drew Lock | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Okwuegbunam | 3 | 4 | 58 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 5 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 3 | 5 | 42 | 1 |
| Courtland Sutton | 2 | 7 | 12 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 4 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Kendall Hinton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.1%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.68
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.02