2021 · Week 15

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

15·10

Broncos

Denver

QB Teddy Bridgewater

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 19mph

Closing spread

DEN -3

Total

45

Model margin

+0.0est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapBroncos
  • +0.063EPA / play+0.021
  • 44.6%Success rate44.7%
  • +0.161EPA / dropback+0.100
  • -0.094EPA / rush-0.093
  • 9.5%Explosive rate9.1%
  • +5.14CPOE+2.34
  • 40.1%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 71.5%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
  • 2.38Points / drive1.89
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. DEN are 6-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4CIN @ DEN3–28DEN
2024 · W17DEN @ CIN24–30CIN
2018 · W13DEN @ CIN24–10DEN
2017 · W11CIN @ DEN20–17CIN
2016 · W3DEN @ CIN29–17DEN
2015 · W16CIN @ DEN17–20DEN
2014 · W16DEN @ CIN28–37CIN
2012 · W9DEN @ CIN31–23DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–DEN
CINQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
DENQ1 14:00619Punt0–0
CINQ1 10:29733Field goal3–0
DENQ1 6:3468Punt3–0
CINQ1 3:4744Punt3–0
DENQ1 2:2036Punt3–0
CINQ1 1:16616Punt3–0
DENQ2 12:40432Field goal3–3
CINQ2 10:44314Punt3–3
DENQ2 8:01514Punt3–3
CINQ2 5:423-3Punt3–3
DENQ2 3:301142Missed field goal3–3
CINQ2 0:09119Field goal6–3
DENQ3 15:00612Punt6–3
CINQ3 11:241052Field goal9–3
DENQ3 6:21975Touchdown9–10
CINQ3 1:15268Touchdown15–10
DENQ3 0:301251Turnover15–10
CINQ4 10:34619Punt15–10
DENQ4 6:45742Punt15–10
CINQ4 3:40620Punt15–10
DENQ4 1:046-9Turnover on downs15–10
CINQ4 0:0400End of half15–10

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow15/2215710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon17583.40
Samaje Perine4307.50
Joe Burrow5255.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Boyd56961
Tee Higgins23230
C.J. Uzomah34180
Samaje Perine22130
Ja'Marr Chase1430
Joe Mixon1120
Drew Sample1120

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater12/229800
Drew Lock6/128810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams15724.80
Melvin Gordon15533.50
Teddy Bridgewater3103.30
Drew Lock1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Albert Okwuegbunam34580
Noah Fant56570
Tim Patrick35421
Courtland Sutton27120
Javonte Williams4490
Melvin Gordon1180
Kendall Hinton0100
Jerry Jeudy0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

7.36%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.1%

Expected total

46.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.68
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.02