2024 · Week 17

Final / OT

Broncos

Denver

QB Bo Nix

24·30

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

Paycor Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 60°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CIN -3.5

Total

50.5

Model margin

+1.3est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapBengals
  • +0.011EPA / play+0.107
  • 42.8%Success rate48.0%
  • +0.062EPA / dropback+0.193
  • -0.075EPA / rush-0.081
  • 9.0%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +0.58CPOE+6.81
  • 40.4%Third-down rate47.3%
  • 65.1%Red-zone TD rate69.7%
  • 2.16Points / drive2.50
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. CIN are 9-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4CIN @ DEN3–28DEN
2021 · W15CIN @ DEN15–10CIN
2018 · W13DEN @ CIN24–10DEN
2017 · W11CIN @ DEN20–17CIN
2016 · W3DEN @ CIN29–17DEN
2015 · W16CIN @ DEN17–20DEN
2014 · W16DEN @ CIN28–37CIN
2012 · W9DEN @ CIN31–23DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–CIN
DENQ1 15:00958Field goal3–0
CINQ1 9:451148Turnover on downs3–0
DENQ1 4:23519Punt3–0
CINQ1 0:321957Turnover on downs3–0
DENQ2 6:1839Punt3–0
CINQ2 4:55857Touchdown3–7
DENQ2 1:49716End of half3–7
CINQ3 15:001265Field goal3–10
DENQ3 9:071270Touchdown10–10
CINQ3 3:101268Touchdown10–17
DENQ4 11:33575Touchdown17–17
CINQ4 8:48627Turnover17–17
DENQ4 5:0866Turnover17–17
CINQ4 2:30659Touchdown17–24
DENQ4 1:29770Touchdown24–24
CINQ4 0:0800End of half24–24
CINOT512Punt24–24
DENOT34Punt24–24
CINOT544Missed field goal24–24
DENOT32Punt24–24
CINOT563Touchdown24–30

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bo Nix24/3121931

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaleel McLaughlin10696.90
Bo Nix7314.40
Audric Estimé9242.70
Marvin Mims Jr.1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Mims Jr.881032
Courtland Sutton59551
Devaughn Vele22270
Audric Estimé11130
Nate Adkins1170
Jaleel McLaughlin2270
Adam Trautman1350
Lucas Krull1130
Javonte Williams2200
Troy Franklin12-10

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow39/4941230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chase Brown20673.40
Joe Burrow4256.31
Khalil Herbert4235.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tee Higgins11121313
Ja'Marr Chase9151020
Mike Gesicki1012860
Andrei Iosivas34590
Chase Brown44240
Cam Grandy1170
Drew Sample1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.4%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.22
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+1.25