Closing spread
CIN -3.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play+0.107
- 42.8%Success rate48.0%
- +0.062EPA / dropback+0.193
- -0.075EPA / rush-0.081
- 9.0%Explosive rate7.3%
- +0.58CPOE+6.81
- 40.4%Third-down rate47.3%
- 65.1%Red-zone TD rate69.7%
- 2.16Points / drive2.50
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. CIN are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 24/31 | 219 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 10 | 69 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Bo Nix | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Audric Estimé | 9 | 24 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 8 | 8 | 103 | 2 |
| Courtland Sutton | 5 | 9 | 55 | 1 |
| Devaughn Vele | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Audric Estimé | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Nate Adkins | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Lucas Krull | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Franklin | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 39/49 | 412 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown | 20 | 67 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Khalil Herbert | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 11 | 12 | 131 | 3 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 9 | 15 | 102 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 10 | 12 | 86 | 0 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 3 | 4 | 59 | 0 |
| Chase Brown | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Cam Grandy | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.22
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.25