Closing spread
DEN -7.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+5.2est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.012EPA / play+0.036
- 46.4%Success rate43.7%
- +0.012EPA / dropback+0.097
- +0.012EPA / rush-0.069
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.1%
- +1.28CPOE-1.38
- 44.3%Third-down rate42.4%
- 69.0%Red-zone TD rate62.1%
- 1.93Points / drive2.10
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. DEN are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Browning | 14/25 | 125 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jake Browning | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 3 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Chase Brown | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 5 | 8 | 23 | 0 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Mitchell Tinsley | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 29/42 | 326 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 16 | 101 | 6.3 | 0 |
| RJ Harvey | 14 | 58 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 1 |
| Bo Nix | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 5 | 6 | 81 | 1 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 6 | 6 | 69 | 0 |
| Troy Franklin | 4 | 8 | 55 | 0 |
| RJ Harvey | 4 | 5 | 40 | 1 |
| Adam Trautman | 2 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 4 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Tyler Badie | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Nate Adkins | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Pat Bryant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.8%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.61
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.85
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.17