NFL Intelligence

2025 · Week 4

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Jake Browning

3·28

Broncos

Denver

QB Bo Nix

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

DEN -7.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+5.2est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

OutNoah FantTEConcussion· DNP
OutShemar StewartDEAnkle· DNP

Broncos

QuestionableMarvin Mims Jr.WRHip· Limited

Win probability

Broncos
Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapBroncos

+0.012EPA / play+0.036
46.4%Success rate43.7%
+0.012EPA / dropback+0.097
+0.012EPA / rush-0.069
7.4%Explosive rate8.1%
+1.28CPOE-1.38
44.3%Third-down rate42.4%
69.0%Red-zone TD rate62.1%
1.93Points / drive2.10
2.2%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. DEN are 6-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
Season	Matchup	Score	Winner
2024 · W17	DEN @ CIN	24–30	CIN
2021 · W15	CIN @ DEN	15–10	CIN
2018 · W13	DEN @ CIN	24–10	DEN
2017 · W11	CIN @ DEN	20–17	CIN
2016 · W3	DEN @ CIN	29–17	DEN
2015 · W16	CIN @ DEN	17–20	DEN
2014 · W16	DEN @ CIN	28–37	CIN
2012 · W9	DEN @ CIN	31–23	DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
Ball	Start	Plays	Yards	Result	CIN–DEN
CIN	Q1 15:00	12	57	Field goal	3–0
DEN	Q1 9:08	3	8	Punt	3–0
CIN	Q1 6:48	5	13	Punt	3–0
DEN	Q1 4:24	9	64	Touchdown	3–7
CIN	Q1 0:17	7	24	Punt	3–7
DEN	Q2 11:52	8	80	Touchdown	3–14
CIN	Q2 8:48	3	0	Punt	3–14
DEN	Q2 8:11	13	73	Turnover	3–14
CIN	Q2 1:58	3	1	Punt	3–14
DEN	Q2 1:09	9	80	Touchdown	3–21
CIN	Q2 0:08	0	0	End of half	3–21
DEN	Q3 15:00	5	14	Punt	3–21
CIN	Q3 12:35	3	8	Punt	3–21
DEN	Q3 10:59	8	45	Punt	3–21
CIN	Q3 6:20	7	39	Punt	3–21
DEN	Q3 2:53	9	52	Punt	3–21
CIN	Q4 12:47	4	6	Punt	3–21
DEN	Q4 11:09	10	76	Touchdown	3–28
CIN	Q4 4:58	3	12	Punt	3–28
DEN	Q4 2:52	4	23	End of half	3–28

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT
Jake Browning	14/25	125	0	0

Rushing

Player	Car	Yds	Avg
Chase Brown	10	40	4.0
Andrei Iosivas	1	5	5.0
Samaje Perine	1	4	4.0
Jake Browning	3	4	1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds
Tee Higgins	3	6	32
Chase Brown	3	3	31
Ja'Marr Chase	5	8	23
Andrei Iosivas	1	1	22
Mitchell Tinsley	1	2	9
Mike Gesicki	1	1	8
Samaje Perine	0	1	0

Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT
Bo Nix	29/42	326	2	1

Rushing

Player	Car	Yds	Avg	TD
J.K. Dobbins	16	101	6.3	0
RJ Harvey	14	58	4.1	0
Marvin Mims Jr.	1	16	16.0	1
Bo Nix	6	7	1.2	1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD
Courtland Sutton	5	6	81	1
Marvin Mims Jr.	6	6	69	0
Troy Franklin	4	8	55	0
RJ Harvey	4	5	40	1
Adam Trautman	2	3	32	0
Evan Engram	4	7	29	0
Tyler Badie	1	2	11	0
Nate Adkins	2	3	5	0
J.K. Dobbins	1	1	4	0
Pat Bryant	0	1	0	0

Where this game is likely to land

Model
Smooth (normal)
Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.8%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.61
Home-field advantage+1.71
Quarterback adjustment+1.85
Rest differential0.00
Expected margin+5.17