Closing spread
DEN -3.5
Total
39
Model margin
+8.9est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play-0.070
- 45.3%Success rate40.5%
- +0.229EPA / dropback-0.041
- -0.144EPA / rush-0.118
- 10.2%Explosive rate8.0%
- +4.53CPOE-1.92
- 39.6%Third-down rate35.2%
- 68.5%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
- 2.11Points / drive1.47
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. DEN are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ McCarron | 22/35 | 200 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Hill | 19 | 63 | 3.3 | 0 |
| AJ McCarron | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 8 | 14 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 5 | 9 | 57 | 1 |
| Tyler Kroft | 4 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 3 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Osweiler | 27/39 | 299 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Anderson | 9 | 73 | 8.1 | 1 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Daniels | 5 | 7 | 70 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 4 | 5 | 67 | 1 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 7 | 12 | 59 | 0 |
| Jordan Norwood | 4 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
71.9%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.40
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+7.81
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.90