2015 · Week 16

Final / OT

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB A.J. McCarron

17·20

Broncos

Denver

QB Brock Osweiler

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 16°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

DEN -3.5

Total

39

Model margin

+8.9est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapBroncos
  • +0.076EPA / play-0.070
  • 45.3%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.229EPA / dropback-0.041
  • -0.144EPA / rush-0.118
  • 10.2%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +4.53CPOE-1.92
  • 39.6%Third-down rate35.2%
  • 68.5%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
  • 2.11Points / drive1.47
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. DEN are 6-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4CIN @ DEN3–28DEN
2024 · W17DEN @ CIN24–30CIN
2021 · W15CIN @ DEN15–10CIN
2018 · W13DEN @ CIN24–10DEN
2017 · W11CIN @ DEN20–17CIN
2016 · W3DEN @ CIN29–17DEN
2014 · W16DEN @ CIN28–37CIN
2012 · W9DEN @ CIN31–23DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–DEN
CINQ1 15:001580Touchdown7–0
DENQ1 7:26810Punt7–0
CINQ1 3:411385Touchdown14–0
DENQ2 10:51419Punt14–0
CINQ2 8:02940Missed field goal14–0
DENQ2 2:26660Field goal14–3
CINQ2 0:1400End of half14–3
DENQ3 15:001181Touchdown14–10
CINQ3 10:1445Punt14–10
DENQ3 8:0235Punt14–10
CINQ3 6:07617Punt14–10
DENQ3 2:5935Punt14–10
CINQ3 1:4438Punt14–10
DENQ4 14:4839Punt14–10
CINQ4 13:3531Punt14–10
DENQ4 11:51252Touchdown14–17
CINQ4 11:171041Field goal17–17
DENQ4 6:46649Turnover17–17
CINQ4 4:05618Punt17–17
DENQ4 1:40654Missed field goal17–17
DENOT1346Field goal17–20
CINOT20Turnover17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
AJ McCarron22/3520010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeremy Hill19633.30
AJ McCarron4215.30
Giovani Bernard8141.80
Mohamed Sanu2105.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green59571
Tyler Kroft46460
Marvin Jones37330
Mohamed Sanu33290
Giovani Bernard45290
Rex Burkhead1180
Jeremy Hill22-20

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Osweiler27/3929910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Anderson9738.11
Ronnie Hillman9353.90
Brock Osweiler351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Owen Daniels57700
Emmanuel Sanders45671
Demaryius Thomas712590
Jordan Norwood46370
Ronnie Hillman44370
Bennie Fowler11130
Virgil Green1180
C.J. Anderson1280
Andre Caldwell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.52.7%5.3%6.9%3.1%5.0%3.5%3.4%2.8%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.41%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

71.9%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.40
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+7.81
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+8.90