Closing spread
DEN -2.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.088EPA / play-0.119
- 39.2%Success rate38.4%
- -0.050EPA / dropback-0.110
- -0.150EPA / rush-0.134
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.3%
- -1.89CPOE-2.16
- 34.7%Third-down rate38.9%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
- 1.49Points / drive1.24
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. DEN are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 15/25 | 154 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 20 | 49 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 4 | 9 | 50 | 1 |
| Alex Erickson | 2 | 2 | 42 | 1 |
| Brandon LaFell | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 2 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Osweiler | 23/42 | 254 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devontae Booker | 14 | 44 | 3.1 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 13 | 37 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Brock Osweiler | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 5 | 9 | 64 | 1 |
| Devontae Booker | 5 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Austin Traylor | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Cody Latimer | 1 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 2 | 8 | 15 | 0 |
| Jordan Taylor | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.34
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+0.98
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.06