2017 · Week 11

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

20·17

Broncos

Denver

QB Brock Osweiler

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

DEN -2.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

+3.1est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapBroncos
  • -0.088EPA / play-0.119
  • 39.2%Success rate38.4%
  • -0.050EPA / dropback-0.110
  • -0.150EPA / rush-0.134
  • 7.8%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -1.89CPOE-2.16
  • 34.7%Third-down rate38.9%
  • 66.6%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
  • 1.49Points / drive1.24
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. DEN are 6-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4CIN @ DEN3–28DEN
2024 · W17DEN @ CIN24–30CIN
2021 · W15CIN @ DEN15–10CIN
2018 · W13DEN @ CIN24–10DEN
2016 · W3DEN @ CIN29–17DEN
2015 · W16CIN @ DEN17–20DEN
2014 · W16DEN @ CIN28–37CIN
2012 · W9DEN @ CIN31–23DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–DEN
DENQ1 15:00413Punt0–0
CINQ1 12:3434Punt0–0
DENQ1 11:11625Turnover0–0
CINQ1 8:2331Touchdown6–0
DENQ1 7:061475Touchdown6–7
CINQ1 0:41775Touchdown13–7
DENQ2 12:55613Punt13–7
CINQ2 10:3330Punt13–7
DENQ2 8:50617Punt13–7
CINQ2 5:2337Punt13–7
DENQ2 3:073-8Punt13–7
CINQ2 1:1048Punt13–7
DENQ2 0:37625Missed field goal13–7
CINQ3 15:0039Punt13–7
DENQ3 13:371050Punt13–7
CINQ3 8:4347Punt13–7
DENQ3 7:08617Field goal13–10
CINQ3 4:54723Punt13–10
DENQ3 0:25733Turnover13–10
CINQ4 12:13644Touchdown20–10
DENQ4 8:561075Touchdown20–17
CINQ4 5:051014Punt20–17
DENQ4 1:5246Turnover on downs20–17
CINQ4 0:5400End of half20–17

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton15/2515430

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon20492.50
Andy Dalton341.30
Giovani Bernard3-4-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green49501
Alex Erickson22421
Brandon LaFell35370
Tyler Kroft23121
Giovani Bernard1280
Tyler Boyd1150
Joe Mixon2200

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Osweiler23/4225411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devontae Booker14443.10
C.J. Anderson13372.81
Brock Osweiler4246.00
Jamaal Charles372.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas59641
Devontae Booker56540
Austin Traylor45360
Cody Latimer13210
C.J. Anderson23190
Bennie Fowler11180
Emmanuel Sanders28150
Jordan Taylor11140
Virgil Green24130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.3%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.34
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.98
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.06