2018 · Week 13

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Case Keenum

24·10

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Jeff Driskel

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 63°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

DEN -3.5

Total

45

Model margin

-1.6est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapBengals
  • -0.020EPA / play+0.013
  • 43.4%Success rate43.6%
  • -0.009EPA / dropback+0.074
  • -0.040EPA / rush-0.105
  • 9.9%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -0.98CPOE-3.54
  • 33.1%Third-down rate36.9%
  • 68.1%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
  • 1.60Points / drive1.95
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. CIN are 9-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4CIN @ DEN3–28DEN
2024 · W17DEN @ CIN24–30CIN
2021 · W15CIN @ DEN15–10CIN
2017 · W11CIN @ DEN20–17CIN
2016 · W3DEN @ CIN29–17DEN
2015 · W16CIN @ DEN17–20DEN
2014 · W16DEN @ CIN28–37CIN
2012 · W9DEN @ CIN31–23DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–CIN
DENQ1 15:00947Punt0–0
CINQ1 10:351160Punt0–0
DENQ1 4:1335Punt0–0
CINQ1 3:09516Punt0–0
DENQ1 0:2137Punt0–0
CINQ2 13:44417Punt0–0
DENQ2 11:00730Missed field goal0–0
CINQ2 7:2354Punt0–0
DENQ2 4:57855Touchdown7–0
CINQ2 1:561248Field goal7–3
DENQ2 0:1200End of half7–3
CINQ3 15:0043Punt7–3
DENQ3 13:4132Punt7–3
DENQ3 12:07233Touchdown14–3
CINQ3 11:27545Turnover14–3
DENQ3 9:36485Touchdown21–3
CINQ3 7:35870Touchdown21–10
DENQ3 2:45429Turnover21–10
CINQ3 0:21612Punt21–10
DENQ4 11:54510Punt21–10
CINQ4 9:21519Punt21–10
DENQ4 6:31747Punt21–10
CINQ4 3:1529Turnover21–10
DENQ4 2:39312Field goal24–10
CINQ4 0:23110End of half24–10

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum12/2115110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Phillip Lindsay191578.32
Royce Freeman12484.00
Case Keenum294.50
Devontae Booker144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton47851
Devontae Booker22380
Emmanuel Sanders46190
Phillip Lindsay1120
Matt LaCosse0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Driskel25/3723611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon12826.80
Giovani Bernard5142.80
Mark Walton11010.00
Jeff Driskel331.00
John Ross122.00
Alex Erickson100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Boyd68970
C.J. Uzomah56330
Giovani Bernard68320
Cody Core14301
John Ross23130
Joe Mixon22130
Matt Lengel1290
A.J. Green1170
Alex Erickson1120
Jordan Franks0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.9%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.35
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.96
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.56