Closing spread
DEN -3.5
Total
45
Model margin
-1.6est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.020EPA / play+0.013
- 43.4%Success rate43.6%
- -0.009EPA / dropback+0.074
- -0.040EPA / rush-0.105
- 9.9%Explosive rate10.1%
- -0.98CPOE-3.54
- 33.1%Third-down rate36.9%
- 68.1%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
- 1.60Points / drive1.95
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. CIN are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 12/21 | 151 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Lindsay | 19 | 157 | 8.3 | 2 |
| Royce Freeman | 12 | 48 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 4 | 7 | 85 | 1 |
| Devontae Booker | 2 | 2 | 38 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 4 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Matt LaCosse | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Driskel | 25/37 | 236 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 12 | 82 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Mark Walton | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Driskel | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| John Ross | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Boyd | 6 | 8 | 97 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 5 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 6 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Cody Core | 1 | 4 | 30 | 1 |
| John Ross | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Matt Lengel | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jordan Franks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.9%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.35
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-1.96
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.56