2016 · Week 3

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Trevor Siemian

29·17

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 81°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

CIN -3.5

Total

42

Model margin

+2.9est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapBengals
  • -0.059EPA / play+0.052
  • 41.0%Success rate45.3%
  • -0.004EPA / dropback+0.116
  • -0.153EPA / rush-0.050
  • 7.5%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -0.31CPOE+2.98
  • 34.4%Third-down rate38.9%
  • 50.5%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
  • 1.51Points / drive1.86
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. CIN are 9-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4CIN @ DEN3–28DEN
2024 · W17DEN @ CIN24–30CIN
2021 · W15CIN @ DEN15–10CIN
2018 · W13DEN @ CIN24–10DEN
2017 · W11CIN @ DEN20–17CIN
2015 · W16CIN @ DEN17–20DEN
2014 · W16DEN @ CIN28–37CIN
2012 · W9DEN @ CIN31–23DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–CIN
DENQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
CINQ1 13:57574Touchdown0–7
DENQ1 11:071654Field goal3–7
CINQ1 4:05617Punt3–7
DENQ1 0:4930Punt3–7
DENQ2 15:00346Touchdown10–7
CINQ2 13:57620Punt10–7
DENQ2 9:2932Punt10–7
CINQ2 8:33956Touchdown10–14
DENQ2 4:571260Touchdown16–14
CINQ2 0:2800End of half16–14
CINQ3 15:00511Punt16–14
DENQ3 12:4819Turnover16–14
CINQ3 12:434-6Punt16–14
DENQ3 10:1237Punt16–14
CINQ3 8:101570Field goal16–17
DENQ4 14:521482Touchdown22–17
CINQ4 6:5637Punt22–17
DENQ4 6:02483Touchdown29–17
CINQ4 4:2310Turnover29–17
DENQ4 4:1734Punt29–17
CINQ4 3:551284Turnover on downs29–17
DENQ4 0:2800End of half29–17

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Siemian23/3531240

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Anderson14372.60
Devontae Booker482.00
Trevor Siemian351.70
Jordan Norwood100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Emmanuel Sanders9131172
Demaryius Thomas671001
Jeff Heuerman11290
Devontae Booker11170
Bennie Fowler11130
Cody Latimer11100
John Phillips2491
C.J. Anderson1440
Jordan Norwood0200

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton21/3120601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeremy Hill17975.72
Andy Dalton6406.70
Giovani Bernard581.60
Brandon LaFell1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green811770
Giovani Bernard55360
Brandon LaFell23340
C.J. Uzomah24310
Tyler Boyd34180
James Wright11100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.7%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.12
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.86