Closing spread
CIN -3.5
Total
42
Model margin
+2.9est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.059EPA / play+0.052
- 41.0%Success rate45.3%
- -0.004EPA / dropback+0.116
- -0.153EPA / rush-0.050
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.8%
- -0.31CPOE+2.98
- 34.4%Third-down rate38.9%
- 50.5%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 1.51Points / drive1.86
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. CIN are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 23/35 | 312 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Anderson | 14 | 37 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Trevor Siemian | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Jordan Norwood | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 9 | 13 | 117 | 2 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 6 | 7 | 100 | 1 |
| Jeff Heuerman | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Cody Latimer | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| John Phillips | 2 | 4 | 9 | 1 |
| C.J. Anderson | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Jordan Norwood | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 21/31 | 206 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Hill | 17 | 97 | 5.7 | 2 |
| Andy Dalton | 6 | 40 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 8 | 11 | 77 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 5 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 2 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| James Wright | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.12
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.86