2014 · Week 16

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

28·37

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 47°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

DEN -3.5

Total

47

Model margin

+0.3est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapBengals
  • +0.083EPA / play-0.019
  • 46.3%Success rate42.0%
  • +0.188EPA / dropback-0.017
  • -0.075EPA / rush-0.020
  • 10.7%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +3.06CPOE+0.60
  • 44.4%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 70.9%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
  • 2.29Points / drive1.86
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. CIN are 9-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4CIN @ DEN3–28DEN
2024 · W17DEN @ CIN24–30CIN
2021 · W15CIN @ DEN15–10CIN
2018 · W13DEN @ CIN24–10DEN
2017 · W11CIN @ DEN20–17CIN
2016 · W3DEN @ CIN29–17DEN
2015 · W16CIN @ DEN17–20DEN
2012 · W9DEN @ CIN31–23DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–CIN
CINQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
DENQ1 13:04426Punt6–0
CINQ1 10:4310Opp touchdown7–0
CINQ1 10:32185Touchdown7–7
DENQ1 10:09519Punt7–7
CINQ1 7:26723Punt7–7
DENQ1 3:0330Punt7–7
CINQ1 0:46926Field goal7–10
DENQ2 10:2325Turnover7–10
CINQ2 9:50422Touchdown7–17
DENQ2 7:56726Punt7–17
CINQ2 4:30959Field goal7–20
DENQ2 1:03649Missed field goal7–20
DENQ3 15:00420Touchdown14–20
CINQ3 14:12327Touchdown14–27
DENQ3 12:35975Touchdown21–27
CINQ3 9:08850Turnover21–27
DENQ3 5:00891Touchdown28–27
CINQ3 1:29428Punt28–27
DENQ4 14:103-1Turnover28–27
CINQ4 13:113-2Punt28–27
DENQ4 12:0937Punt28–27
CINQ4 9:4337Field goal28–30
DENQ4 7:494-2Punt28–30
CINQ4 5:5857Punt28–30
DENQ4 4:0439Opp touchdown28–37
DENQ4 2:41861Turnover28–37
CINQ4 1:07114End of half28–37

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning28/4431124

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Anderson18834.61
Juwan Thompson122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas7141150
Emmanuel Sanders67702
C.J. Anderson810550
Julius Thomas26330
Wes Welker44300
Jacob Tamme1280
Juwan Thompson0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton17/2514621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeremy Hill221476.71
Giovani Bernard8364.50
Andy Dalton6254.20
Dane Sanzenbacher1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jermaine Gresham910621
Giovani Bernard55451
Mohamed Sanu12160
Brandon Tate11120
Dane Sanzenbacher12110
A.J. Green0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

7.32%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.9%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.17
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.32