Closing spread
DEN -3.5
Total
47
Model margin
+0.3est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.083EPA / play-0.019
- 46.3%Success rate42.0%
- +0.188EPA / dropback-0.017
- -0.075EPA / rush-0.020
- 10.7%Explosive rate8.5%
- +3.06CPOE+0.60
- 44.4%Third-down rate39.7%
- 70.9%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 2.29Points / drive1.86
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. CIN are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 28/44 | 311 | 2 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Anderson | 18 | 83 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Juwan Thompson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 7 | 14 | 115 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 6 | 7 | 70 | 2 |
| C.J. Anderson | 8 | 10 | 55 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 2 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Juwan Thompson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 17/25 | 146 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Hill | 22 | 147 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Dane Sanzenbacher | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermaine Gresham | 9 | 10 | 62 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 5 | 5 | 45 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Dane Sanzenbacher | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.9%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.17
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.32