Closing spread
IND -9
Total
47
Model margin
+0.9est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
1.1%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.153EPA / play-0.062
- 51.4%Success rate43.2%
- +0.294EPA / dropback-0.069
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.052
- 8.8%Explosive rate6.8%
- +4.70CPOE+4.14
- 56.7%Third-down rate38.7%
- 70.9%Red-zone TD rate64.6%
- 2.54Points / drive1.41
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. HOU are 19-28-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 61 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| IND | Q1 10:23 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| HOU | Q1 9:57 | 9 | 47 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| IND | Q1 5:46 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| HOU | Q1 0:58 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 7–14 |
| IND | Q2 13:57 | 10 | 85 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| HOU | Q2 8:16 | 14 | 75 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| IND | Q2 0:16 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–21 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 14–21 |
| HOU | Q3 12:31 | 8 | 54 | Punt | 14–21 |
| IND | Q3 7:31 | 11 | 65 | Field goal | 17–21 |
| HOU | Q3 1:23 | 14 | 66 | Field goal | 17–24 |
| IND | Q4 6:54 | 8 | 71 | Touchdown | 24–24 |
| HOU | Q4 2:41 | 5 | 31 | Field goal | 24–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 21/27 | 205 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 15 | 100 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 16/23 | 163 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Dayne | 32 | 153 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Chris Taylor | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 |
| David Carr | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.4%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.76
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.88