Closing spread
KC -7
Total
36.5
Model margin
+5.5est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
3.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.5 points. OAK are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 57 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| KC | Q1 10:09 | 11 | 60 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| LV | Q1 5:21 | 6 | 19 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| KC | Q1 3:21 | 6 | 27 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| LV | Q1 1:13 | 7 | 33 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| KC | Q2 11:43 | 9 | 40 | Turnover on downs | 10–6 |
| LV | Q2 8:37 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–6 |
| KC | Q2 7:08 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 10–6 |
| LV | Q2 5:18 | 10 | 34 | Turnover | 10–6 |
| KC | Q2 1:34 | 5 | 37 | Touchdown | 17–6 |
| LV | Q2 0:40 | 5 | 21 | Turnover | 17–6 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 17–6 |
| LV | Q3 12:24 | 6 | 24 | Field goal | 17–9 |
| KC | Q3 8:49 | 6 | 25 | Missed field goal | 17–9 |
| LV | Q3 5:25 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 17–9 |
| KC | Q3 3:28 | 9 | 38 | Field goal | 20–9 |
| LV | Q4 13:40 | 9 | 39 | Turnover | 20–9 |
| KC | Q4 9:09 | 7 | 45 | Turnover | 20–9 |
| LV | Q4 5:36 | 1 | 15 | Turnover | 20–9 |
| KC | Q4 5:29 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 20–9 |
| LV | Q4 4:16 | 9 | 60 | Turnover on downs | 20–9 |
| KC | Q4 1:56 | 2 | 13 | End of half | 20–9 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 12/24 | 148 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 31 | 135 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Dee Brown | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
3.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.6%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.23
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.15
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.48
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.