Closing spread
KC -7
Total
36.5
Model margin
+5.5est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
3.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 35–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. OAK are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 12/24 | 148 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 31 | 135 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Dee Brown | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
3.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.6%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.23
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.15
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.48
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.