Closing spread
GB -4
Total
38
Model margin
+3.2est.
GB perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.151EPA / play-0.067
- 39.3%Success rate40.0%
- -0.174EPA / dropback-0.018
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.146
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.1%
- +1.13CPOE-5.72
- 33.2%Third-down rate38.9%
- 45.1%Red-zone TD rate36.6%
- 0.99Points / drive1.28
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 10/20 | 50 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Taylor | 15 | 49 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Artose Pinner | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 26/50 | 285 | 0 | 2 |
| Carlyle Holiday | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 18 | 42 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Vernand Morency | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Noah Herron | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
40.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.39
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.73
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.23