Closing spread
MIA -2.5
Total
36
Model margin
+1.7est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play-0.103
- 43.0%Success rate41.6%
- +0.057EPA / dropback-0.081
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.139
- 6.5%Explosive rate7.2%
- +2.38CPOE-1.62
- 44.6%Third-down rate37.7%
- 49.8%Red-zone TD rate45.8%
- 1.74Points / drive1.19
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. MIA are 23-28-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 14/29 | 237 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 18 | 36 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleo Lemon | 11/16 | 104 | 1 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 7/15 | 42 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 18 | 110 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.88
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.68