Closing spread
DAL -6.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.055EPA / play+0.072
- 43.0%Success rate45.5%
- +0.117EPA / dropback+0.143
- -0.049EPA / rush-0.024
- 11.1%Explosive rate9.8%
- -1.03CPOE+3.73
- 42.8%Third-down rate49.3%
- 64.7%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
- 1.67Points / drive2.18
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 15/23 | 238 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 26 | 122 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 7 | 43 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Thomas Tapeh | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 14/29 | 142 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 3 | 42 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 10 | 38 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 6 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
4.61%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.9%
Expected total
47.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.28
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.06
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.43