2006 · Week 16
Final / OT
Edward Jones Dome · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
STL -1
Total
43
Model margin
+4.3est.
STL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. STL are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 13/26 | 160 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladell Betts | 29 | 129 | 4.4 | 2 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Jason Campbell | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.4%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.32
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.38
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.26
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.