2006 · Week 16
Final / OT
Edward Jones Dome · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
STL -1
Total
43
Model margin
+4.3est.
STL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. STL are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | WAS–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 12:18 | 10 | 78 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 6:41 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–0 |
| WAS | Q1 5:11 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 1:53 | 9 | 42 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| WAS | Q2 12:55 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LA | Q2 11:52 | 4 | 83 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| WAS | Q2 9:49 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LA | Q2 8:52 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 7–14 |
| WAS | Q2 6:59 | 2 | 8 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| LA | Q2 6:14 | 4 | 32 | Punt | 14–14 |
| WAS | Q2 3:49 | 10 | 76 | Touchdown | 21–14 |
| LA | Q2 0:21 | 1 | 2 | End of half | 21–14 |
| WAS | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 67 | Touchdown | 28–14 |
| LA | Q3 8:49 | 5 | 82 | Touchdown | 28–21 |
| WAS | Q3 6:30 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 28–21 |
| LA | Q3 4:54 | 7 | 69 | Touchdown | 28–28 |
| WAS | Q3 1:49 | 4 | 22 | Punt | 28–28 |
| LA | Q3 0:14 | 13 | 97 | Field goal | 28–31 |
| WAS | Q4 7:57 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 28–31 |
| LA | Q4 6:12 | 3 | 7 | Turnover | 28–31 |
| WAS | Q4 4:36 | 4 | 0 | Field goal | 31–31 |
| LA | Q4 3:21 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 31–31 |
| WAS | Q4 2:20 | 2 | 39 | Turnover | 31–31 |
| LA | Q4 2:02 | 7 | 66 | Missed field goal | 31–31 |
| LA | OT | 5 | 31 | Punt | 31–31 |
| WAS | OT | 3 | 9 | Punt | 31–31 |
| LA | OT | 5 | 39 | Touchdown | 31–37 |
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 13/26 | 160 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladell Betts | 29 | 129 | 4.4 | 2 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Jason Campbell | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.4%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.32
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.38
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.26
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.