Closing spread
PHI -7
Total
43
Model margin
+1.9est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play+0.055
- 39.9%Success rate43.0%
- -0.078EPA / dropback+0.117
- -0.021EPA / rush-0.049
- 10.3%Explosive rate11.1%
- -2.80CPOE-1.03
- 36.3%Third-down rate42.8%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
- 1.44Points / drive1.67
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. PHI are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 15/21 | 175 | 1 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 8/14 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerious Norwood | 10 | 63 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 19 | 58 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Feeley | 22/33 | 321 | 3 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 1/3 | 29 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Moats | 11 | 22 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Reno Mahe | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| A.J. Feeley | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
4.67%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.49
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.05
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.92