2006 · Week 17

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Schaub

17·24

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB A.J. Feeley

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 47°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

PHI -7

Total

43

Model margin

+1.9est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

4.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapEagles
  • -0.050EPA / play+0.055
  • 39.9%Success rate43.0%
  • -0.078EPA / dropback+0.117
  • -0.021EPA / rush-0.049
  • 10.3%Explosive rate11.1%
  • -2.80CPOE-1.03
  • 36.3%Third-down rate42.8%
  • 48.7%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
  • 1.44Points / drive1.67
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 12–6 since 1999

Meetings average 40.4 points. PHI are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2ATL @ PHI22–21ATL
2021 · W1PHI @ ATL32–6PHI
2019 · W2PHI @ ATL20–24ATL
2018 · W1ATL @ PHI12–18PHI
2017 · playoffsATL @ PHI10–15PHI
2016 · W10ATL @ PHI15–24PHI
2015 · W1PHI @ ATL24–26ATL
2012 · W8ATL @ PHI30–17ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–PHI
ATLQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:29432Field goal0–3
ATLQ1 11:35742Touchdown7–3
PHIQ1 8:111069Touchdown7–10
ATLQ1 2:5239Punt7–10
PHIQ1 1:0437Punt7–10
ATLQ2 13:561130Field goal10–10
PHIQ2 9:03640Punt10–10
ATLQ2 5:58623Punt10–10
PHIQ2 3:30628Touchdown10–17
ATLQ2 1:5059Punt10–17
PHIQ2 0:3848Punt10–17
PHIQ3 15:0000Punt10–17
ATLQ3 14:593-11Punt10–17
PHIQ3 14:19221Turnover10–17
ATLQ3 13:30531Turnover on downs10–17
PHIQ3 11:311162Missed field goal10–17
ATLQ3 6:071480Touchdown17–17
PHIQ4 13:33189Touchdown17–24
ATLQ4 13:14739Turnover17–24
PHIQ4 9:34631Punt17–24
ATLQ4 6:431270Turnover on downs17–24
PHIQ4 1:0636Punt17–24
ATLQ4 0:31354End of half17–24

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub15/2117511
Mike Vick8/148110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerious Norwood10636.30
Warrick Dunn19583.10
Matt Schaub22110.50
Mike Vick3175.70

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
A.J. Feeley22/3332130
Jeff Garcia1/32900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Moats11222.00
Reno Mahe3144.70
A.J. Feeley133.00
Brian Westbrook133.00
Correll Buckhalter111.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

4.67%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.2%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.49
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.05
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.92