2015 · Week 1

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Sam Bradford

24·26

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

PHI -3.5

Total

55

Model margin

+3.3est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapFalcons
  • -0.044EPA / play+0.000
  • 42.7%Success rate46.4%
  • -0.008EPA / dropback+0.113
  • -0.105EPA / rush-0.195
  • 8.7%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -0.86CPOE-0.01
  • 39.1%Third-down rate47.3%
  • 66.8%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
  • 1.56Points / drive1.77
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 12–6 since 1999

Meetings average 40.4 points. ATL are 6-11-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2ATL @ PHI22–21ATL
2021 · W1PHI @ ATL32–6PHI
2019 · W2PHI @ ATL20–24ATL
2018 · W1ATL @ PHI12–18PHI
2017 · playoffsATL @ PHI10–15PHI
2016 · W10ATL @ PHI15–24PHI
2012 · W8ATL @ PHI30–17ATL
2011 · W2PHI @ ATL31–35ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–ATL
PHIQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
ATLQ1 13:59652Field goal0–3
PHIQ1 10:5530Punt0–3
ATLQ1 9:33845Turnover0–3
PHIQ1 5:50420Punt0–3
ATLQ1 4:473-5Punt0–3
PHIQ1 3:45611Punt0–3
ATLQ1 1:231188Touchdown0–10
PHIQ2 10:441069Field goal3–10
ATLQ2 7:1837Punt3–10
PHIQ2 6:2039Punt3–10
ATLQ2 5:05935Field goal3–13
PHIQ2 1:0510Turnover3–13
ATLQ2 0:59222Touchdown3–20
PHIQ2 0:45612End of half3–20
ATLQ3 15:003-4Turnover3–20
PHIQ3 13:2528Touchdown10–20
ATLQ3 13:13623Punt10–20
PHIQ3 9:4916120Touchdown17–20
ATLQ3 3:391579Field goal17–23
PHIQ4 10:49680Touchdown24–23
ATLQ4 8:37451Field goal24–26
PHIQ4 6:271064Missed field goal24–26
ATLQ4 2:2635Punt24–26
PHIQ4 1:4932Turnover24–26
ATLQ4 1:1100End of half24–26

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Bradford36/5233612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darren Sproles55010.00
DeMarco Murray891.11
Ryan Mathews341.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Matthews10131020
Darren Sproles79760
Zach Ertz38460
Riley Cooper34250
Ryan Mathews34240
Miles Austin23220
Josh Huff23190
DeMarco Murray45111
Brent Celek1160
Nelson Agholor1250

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan23/3429822

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tevin Coleman20804.00
Devonta Freeman10181.80
Matt Ryan571.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones9111412
Roddy White48840
Devonta Freeman34290
Jacob Tamme33190
Leonard Hankerson24160
Nick Williams1150
Levine Toilolo1140
Tevin Coleman0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

6.82%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.9%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.80
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.29