Closing spread
PHI -3.5
Total
55
Model margin
+3.3est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.044EPA / play+0.000
- 42.7%Success rate46.4%
- -0.008EPA / dropback+0.113
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.195
- 8.7%Explosive rate8.5%
- -0.86CPOE-0.01
- 39.1%Third-down rate47.3%
- 66.8%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 1.56Points / drive1.77
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. ATL are 6-11-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bradford | 36/52 | 336 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Sproles | 5 | 50 | 10.0 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 8 | 9 | 1.1 | 1 |
| Ryan Mathews | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Matthews | 10 | 13 | 102 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 7 | 9 | 76 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 3 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Ryan Mathews | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Josh Huff | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 4 | 5 | 11 | 1 |
| Brent Celek | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 23/34 | 298 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevin Coleman | 20 | 80 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 10 | 18 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 9 | 11 | 141 | 2 |
| Roddy White | 4 | 8 | 84 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Nick Williams | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
6.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.9%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.80
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.29