Closing spread
ATL -3.5
Total
49
Model margin
-1.8est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.061EPA / play-0.076
- 46.4%Success rate41.2%
- +0.091EPA / dropback-0.028
- +0.025EPA / rush-0.162
- 10.5%Explosive rate8.2%
- +0.39CPOE+0.85
- 45.5%Third-down rate38.5%
- 66.1%Red-zone TD rate52.7%
- 2.39Points / drive1.58
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. ATL are 6-11-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 27/35 | 264 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 15 | 74 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 7 | 62 | 8.9 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 9 | 37 | 4.1 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 6 | 8 | 71 | 1 |
| Jalen Reagor | 6 | 6 | 49 | 1 |
| Dallas Goedert | 4 | 5 | 42 | 1 |
| Miles Sanders | 4 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Quez Watkins | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 21/35 | 164 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 7 | 54 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 15 | 49 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | 5 | 8 | 51 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 4 | 8 | 31 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 3 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.2%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.52
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.82