Closing spread
PHI -1.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
-2.0est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.091EPA / play-0.073
- 46.4%Success rate42.7%
- +0.234EPA / dropback-0.006
- -0.192EPA / rush-0.208
- 7.3%Explosive rate8.8%
- +5.71CPOE+0.51
- 44.9%Third-down rate37.1%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
- 2.31Points / drive1.18
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. PHI are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 22/29 | 262 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 8 | 60 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 24 | 58 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 5 | 5 | 123 | 1 |
| Roddy White | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Drew Davis | 2 | 2 | 30 | 1 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 5 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 21/35 | 191 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 16 | 45 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 7 | 42 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Bryce Brown | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 5 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 4 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 6 | 10 | 33 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 3 | 3 | 22 | 1 |
| Riley Cooper | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.6%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.52
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.04