2012 · Week 8

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

30·17

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Michael Vick

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

PHI -1.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

-2.0est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapEagles
  • +0.091EPA / play-0.073
  • 46.4%Success rate42.7%
  • +0.234EPA / dropback-0.006
  • -0.192EPA / rush-0.208
  • 7.3%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +5.71CPOE+0.51
  • 44.9%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 64.5%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
  • 2.31Points / drive1.18
  • 1.7%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 12–6 since 1999

Meetings average 40.4 points. PHI are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2ATL @ PHI22–21ATL
2021 · W1PHI @ ATL32–6PHI
2019 · W2PHI @ ATL20–24ATL
2018 · W1ATL @ PHI12–18PHI
2017 · playoffsATL @ PHI10–15PHI
2016 · W10ATL @ PHI15–24PHI
2015 · W1PHI @ ATL24–26ATL
2011 · W2PHI @ ATL31–35ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–PHI
ATLQ1 15:001780Touchdown7–0
PHIQ1 6:163-3Punt7–0
ATLQ1 4:501028Touchdown14–0
PHIQ1 0:321361Touchdown14–7
ATLQ2 8:18478Touchdown21–7
PHIQ2 6:33731Punt21–7
ATLQ2 2:481266Field goal24–7
PHIQ2 0:0215End of half24–7
PHIQ3 15:00868Field goal24–10
ATLQ3 11:201274Field goal27–10
PHIQ3 6:1039Punt27–10
ATLQ3 5:02964Field goal30–10
PHIQ4 14:571680Touchdown30–17
ATLQ4 7:1836Punt30–17
PHIQ4 5:245-2Turnover on downs30–17
ATLQ4 4:453-8Punt30–17
PHIQ4 3:4252Turnover on downs30–17
ATLQ4 2:2454Turnover on downs30–17
PHIQ4 0:14219End of half30–17

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan22/2926230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jacquizz Rodgers8607.50
Michael Turner24582.40
Matt Ryan3186.00
Julio Jones199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones551231
Roddy White34380
Drew Davis22301
Tony Gonzalez35290
Jacquizz Rodgers55200
Michael Turner1260

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick21/3519110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy16452.81
Mike Vick7426.00
Bryce Brown155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson58590
Jason Avant47450
Jeremy Maclin610330
Brent Celek35320
LeSean McCoy33221
Riley Cooper0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.53.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.05%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.6%

Expected total

46.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.52
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.04